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2026-27 forecast · Tue, Jan 12, 10:00 PM ET
Lukas Dostal · 0.888 SV%
The preseason ratings make Anaheim Ducks 56.0% to win at home — a modest lean, worth 6.0 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project ANA for 94 points and NYR for 91.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
ANA controlled play at 5v5 last season, 51.0% of the expected goals to 48.0%; ANA's power play ran at 20.2% against a NYR kill at 79.9%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Igor Shesterkin (NYR) saved 2.2 goals above expected to Lukas Dostal's -32.8, on save percentages of 0.912 and 0.888.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Anaheim Ducks over New York Rangers is where it starts, not where it ends.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
NYR
Igor Shesterkin
51 games, 2025-26
ANA
Lukas Dostal
56 games, 2025-26
| NYR | Metric | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 48.0% | xGF% (5v5) | 51.0% |
| 46.6% | Shot share | 52.4% |
| 2.9 | Goals for / game | 3.2 |
| 3.0 | Goals against / game | 3.5 |
| 24.6% | Power play | 20.2% |
| 79.9% | Penalty kill | 75.6% |
| 54.5% | Faceoffs | 47.8% |
New York Rangers
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | 11 | 51 | 61 | |
| C | 24 | 37 | 61 | |
| C | 19 | 37 | 56 | |
| R | 32 | 22 | 54 |
Anaheim Ducks
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L | 34 | 29 | 63 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | NYR @ ANA | ANA | NYR 3–5 ANA | Correct |
| 2025-12-15 | ANA @ NYR | NYR | ANA 4–1 NYR | Missed |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| New York Rangers | 91 | 37.5% |
| Anaheim Ducks | 94 | 53.3% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| C | 25 | 34 | 60 |
| R | 21 | 34 | 55 |
| R | 19 | 33 | 51 |