PuckCast Edge
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2026-27 forecast · Fri, Jan 8, 7:00 PM ET
Elvis Merzlikins · 0.883 SV%
The preseason ratings make Buffalo Sabres 51.3% to win on the road — barely a lean at all, worth 1.3 points over a coin flip, which grades C. Over a full season those same ratings project BUF for 104 points and CBJ for 96.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
CBJ controlled play at 5v5 last season, 51.9% of the expected goals to 50.7%; BUF's power play ran at 19.7% against a CBJ kill at 76.0%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (BUF) saved -1.3 goals above expected to Elvis Merzlikins's -21.9, on save percentages of 0.910 and 0.883.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Buffalo Sabres over Columbus Blue Jackets is where it starts, not where it ends.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
BUF
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
35 games, 2025-26
CBJ
Elvis Merzlikins
30 games, 2025-26
| BUF | Metric | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 50.7% | xGF% (5v5) | 51.9% |
| 49.7% | Shot share | 50.5% |
| 3.4 | Goals for / game | 3.0 |
| 2.9 | Goals against / game | 3.1 |
| 19.7% | Power play | 18.9% |
| 81.0% | Penalty kill | 76.0% |
| 45.9% | Faceoffs | 50.6% |
Buffalo Sabres
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 35 | 33 | 68 | |
| D | 18 | 50 | 68 | |
| C | 14 | 30 | 44 | |
| R | 17 | 26 | 43 |
Columbus Blue Jackets
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | 18 | 49 | 67 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | CBJ @ BUF | BUF | CBJ 0–5 BUF | Correct |
| 2026-01-03 | BUF @ CBJ | BUF | BUF 1–5 CBJ | Missed |
| 2025-10-28 | CBJ @ BUF | CBJ | CBJ 4–3 BUF | Correct |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Sabres | 104 | 67.2% |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 96 | 47.6% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| R | 25 | 33 | 58 |
| C | 18 | 28 | 45 |
| C | 14 | 23 | 37 |