PuckCast Edge
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2026-27 forecast · Tue, Jan 12, 7:00 PM ET
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen · 0.910 SV%
The preseason ratings make Buffalo Sabres 62.6% to win at home — a clear lean, worth 12.6 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project BUF for 104 points and NJD for 94.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
BUF controlled play at 5v5 last season, 50.7% of the expected goals to 49.0%; BUF's power play ran at 19.7% against a NJD kill at 79.3%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (BUF) saved -1.3 goals above expected to Jake Allen's -7.2, on save percentages of 0.910 and 0.904.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Buffalo Sabres over New Jersey Devils is where it starts, not where it ends.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
NJD
Jake Allen
37 games, 2025-26
BUF
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
35 games, 2025-26
| NJD | Metric | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 49.0% | xGF% (5v5) | 50.7% |
| 51.9% | Shot share | 49.7% |
| 2.8 | Goals for / game | 3.4 |
| 3.1 | Goals against / game | 2.9 |
| 21.9% | Power play | 19.7% |
| 79.3% | Penalty kill | 81.0% |
| 50.5% | Faceoffs | 45.9% |
New Jersey Devils
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 31 | 53 | 84 | |
| L | 22 | 51 | 72 | |
| C | 29 | 40 | 68 | |
| D | 8 | 38 | 47 |
Buffalo Sabres
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 35 | 33 | 68 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-25 | BUF @ NJD | BUF | BUF 2–1 NJD | Correct |
| 2025-12-21 | BUF @ NJD | NJD | BUF 3–1 NJD | Missed |
| 2025-11-28 | NJD @ BUF | BUF | NJD 5–0 BUF | Missed |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| New Jersey Devils | 94 | 42.3% |
| Buffalo Sabres | 104 | 67.2% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| D | 18 | 50 | 68 |
| C | 14 | 30 | 44 |
| R | 17 | 26 | 43 |