PuckCast Edge
Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
2026-27 forecast · Sat, Jan 9, 7:00 PM ET
Arturs Silovs · 0.888 SV%
The preseason ratings make Montréal Canadiens 58.3% to win at home: a modest lean, worth 8.3 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project MTL for 102 points and PIT for 97.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How this is calculated
PuckCast's preseason forecast gives Montréal Canadiens a 58.3% chance to win on Sat, Jan 9. The matchup detail follows.
at 5v5 last season the two were level on expected goals (53.2% to 53.8%).
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Arturs Silovs (PIT) saved -23.2 goals above expected to Samuel Montembeault's -23.9, on save percentages of 0.888 and 0.872.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction, with confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market, publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Montréal Canadiens over Pittsburgh Penguins is where it starts, not where it ends.
No sportsbook has posted a price for this game yet. Prices usually appear roughly a week before puck drop.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
PIT
Arturs Silovs
39 games, 2025-26
MTL
Samuel Montembeault
25 games, 2025-26
| PIT | Metric | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 53.8% | xGF% (5v5) | 53.2% |
| — | Shot share | — |
| — | Goals for / game | — |
| — | Goals against / game | — |
| — | Power play | — |
| — | Penalty kill | — |
| — | Faceoffs | — |
Pittsburgh Penguins
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sidney Crosby | C | 29 | 47 | 76 |
 Evgeni Malkin | C | 21 | 39 | 59 |
 Erik Karlsson | D | 11 | 38 | 49 |
 Bryan Rust | R | 21 | 26 | 47 |
Montréal Canadiens
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nick Suzuki | C | 29 | 60 | 90 |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 97 | 50.9% |
| Montréal Canadiens | 102 | 61.2% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
Final scores from the graded ledger. A loss in overtime also reads L.
Last three seasons: MTL 3, PIT 5
| Date | Game | Final | Our pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-31 | PIT @ MTL | PIT 4, MTL 5 | MTL hit |
| 2026-10-03 | MTL @ PIT | MTL 5, PIT 6 | PIT hit |
| 2025-12-21 | MTL @ PIT | MTL 4, PIT 5 | MTL missed |
| 2025-12-20 | PIT @ MTL | PIT 0, MTL 4 | MTL hit |
| 2025-12-11 | MTL @ PIT | MTL 4, PIT 2 | PIT missed |
| 2024-12-12 | PIT @ MTL | PIT 9, MTL 2 | PIT hit |
| 2024-11-02 | MTL @ PIT | MTL 1, PIT 3 | PIT hit |
| 2024-10-14 | PIT @ MTL | PIT 6, MTL 3 | MTL missed |
 Lane Hutson | D | 11 | 67 | 77 |
|---|
 Cole Caufield | R | 41 | 35 | 76 |
|---|
 Juraj Slafkovský | L | 24 | 38 | 62 |
|---|
MTL@
PHI
