PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
2026-27 forecast · Wed, Jan 13, 7:00 PM ET
Samuel Montembeault · 0.872 SV%
The preseason ratings make Montréal Canadiens 60.8% to win at home — a clear lean, worth 10.8 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project MTL for 102 points and NJD for 94.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
MTL controlled play at 5v5 last season, 50.0% of the expected goals to 49.0%; MTL's power play ran at 23.5% against a NJD kill at 79.3%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Jake Allen (NJD) saved -7.2 goals above expected to Samuel Montembeault's -23.9, on save percentages of 0.904 and 0.872.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Montréal Canadiens over New Jersey Devils is where it starts, not where it ends.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
NJD
Jake Allen
37 games, 2025-26
MTL
Samuel Montembeault
25 games, 2025-26
| NJD | Metric | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 49.0% | xGF% (5v5) | 50.0% |
| 51.9% | Shot share | 48.3% |
| 2.8 | Goals for / game | 3.4 |
| 3.1 | Goals against / game | 3.0 |
| 21.9% | Power play | 23.5% |
| 79.3% | Penalty kill | 77.5% |
| 50.5% | Faceoffs | 51.4% |
New Jersey Devils
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 31 | 53 | 84 | |
| L | 22 | 51 | 72 | |
| C | 29 | 40 | 68 | |
| D | 8 | 38 | 47 |
Montréal Canadiens
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 29 | 60 | 90 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | NJD @ MTL | MTL | NJD 3–0 MTL | Missed |
| 2026-04-04 | MTL @ NJD | MTL | MTL 6–5 NJD | Correct |
| 2025-11-06 | MTL @ NJD | MTL | MTL 3–4 NJD | Missed |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| New Jersey Devils | 94 | 42.3% |
| Montréal Canadiens | 102 | 61.2% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| D | 11 | 67 | 77 |
| R | 41 | 35 | 76 |
| L | 24 | 38 | 62 |