PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
2026-27 forecast · Tue, Jan 12, 7:00 PM ET
Jeremy Swayman · 0.908 SV%
The preseason ratings make Boston Bruins 50.4% to win at home — barely a lean at all, worth 0.4 points over a coin flip, which grades C. Over a full season those same ratings project BOS for 99 points and CAR for 105.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
CAR controlled play at 5v5 last season, 56.5% of the expected goals to 47.6%; BOS's power play ran at 22.7% against a CAR kill at 82.7%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Jeremy Swayman (BOS) saved -4.6 goals above expected to Brandon Bussi's -14.9, on save percentages of 0.908 and 0.895.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Boston Bruins over Carolina Hurricanes is where it starts, not where it ends.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
CAR
Brandon Bussi
39 games, 2025-26
BOS
Jeremy Swayman
55 games, 2025-26
| CAR | Metric | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 56.5% | xGF% (5v5) | 47.6% |
| 57.3% | Shot share | 47.4% |
| 3.5 | Goals for / game | 3.2 |
| 2.7 | Goals against / game | 3.0 |
| 23.4% | Power play | 22.7% |
| 82.7% | Penalty kill | 78.5% |
| 49.8% | Faceoffs | 53.3% |
Carolina Hurricanes
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 29 | 47 | 76 | |
| R | 33 | 38 | 71 | |
| R | 26 | 37 | 63 | |
| L | 22 | 36 | 58 |
Boston Bruins
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 35 | 57 | 92 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | BOS @ CAR | CAR | BOS 5–6 CAR | Correct |
| 2025-11-17 | CAR @ BOS | CAR | CAR 3–1 BOS | Correct |
| 2025-11-01 | CAR @ BOS | CAR | CAR 1–2 BOS | Missed |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Carolina Hurricanes | 105 | 69.3% |
| Boston Bruins | 99 | 54.2% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| R | 25 | 28 | 53 |
| C | 27 | 23 | 50 |
| D | 10 | 38 | 48 |