PuckCast Edge
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2026-27 forecast · Tue, Jan 19, 7:00 PM ET
John Gibson · 0.901 SV%
The preseason ratings make Detroit Red Wings 54.5% to win at home — barely a lean at all, worth 4.5 points over a coin flip, which grades C. Over a full season those same ratings project DET for 92 points and ANA for 94.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
ANA controlled play at 5v5 last season, 51.0% of the expected goals to 48.4%; DET's power play ran at 22.6% against a ANA kill at 75.6%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season John Gibson (DET) saved -12.5 goals above expected to Lukas Dostal's -32.8, on save percentages of 0.901 and 0.888.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Detroit Red Wings over Anaheim Ducks is where it starts, not where it ends.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
ANA
Lukas Dostal
56 games, 2025-26
DET
John Gibson
57 games, 2025-26
| ANA | Metric | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 51.0% | xGF% (5v5) | 48.4% |
| 52.4% | Shot share | 50.4% |
| 3.2 | Goals for / game | 2.9 |
| 3.5 | Goals against / game | 3.1 |
| 20.2% | Power play | 22.6% |
| 75.6% | Penalty kill | 77.1% |
| 47.8% | Faceoffs | 51.0% |
Anaheim Ducks
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L | 34 | 29 | 63 | |
| C | 25 | 34 | 60 | |
| R | 21 | 34 | 55 | |
| R | 19 | 33 | 51 |
Detroit Red Wings
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L | 29 | 52 | 81 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-13 | ANA @ DET | DET | ANA 3–6 DET | Correct |
| 2025-10-31 | DET @ ANA | ANA | DET 2–5 ANA | Correct |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Anaheim Ducks | 94 | 53.3% |
| Detroit Red Wings | 92 | 38.1% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| R | 35 | 39 | 74 |
| C | 28 | 35 | 63 |
| D | 9 | 43 | 52 |