PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
2026-27 forecast · Sat, Jan 23, 3:30 PM ET
Linus Ullmark · 0.891 SV%
The preseason ratings make Ottawa Senators 58.5% to win at home — a modest lean, worth 8.5 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project OTT for 100 points and CBJ for 96.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
OTT controlled play at 5v5 last season, 55.4% of the expected goals to 51.9%; OTT's power play ran at 22.5% against a CBJ kill at 76.0%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Elvis Merzlikins (CBJ) saved -21.9 goals above expected to Linus Ullmark's -23.2, on save percentages of 0.883 and 0.891.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Ottawa Senators over Columbus Blue Jackets is where it starts, not where it ends.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
CBJ
Elvis Merzlikins
30 games, 2025-26
OTT
Linus Ullmark
49 games, 2025-26
| CBJ | Metric | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 51.9% | xGF% (5v5) | 55.4% |
| 50.5% | Shot share | 53.7% |
| 3.0 | Goals for / game | 3.3 |
| 3.1 | Goals against / game | 3.0 |
| 18.9% | Power play | 22.5% |
| 76.0% | Penalty kill | 76.4% |
| 50.6% | Faceoffs | 54.7% |
Columbus Blue Jackets
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | 18 | 49 | 67 | |
| R | 25 | 33 | 58 | |
| C | 18 | 28 | 45 | |
| C | 14 | 23 | 37 |
Ottawa Senators
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 32 | 57 | 90 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-20 | OTT @ CBJ | OTT | OTT 4–1 CBJ | Correct |
| 2025-12-29 | CBJ @ OTT | OTT | CBJ 4–1 OTT | Missed |
| 2025-12-11 | OTT @ CBJ | OTT | OTT 6–3 CBJ | Correct |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 96 | 47.6% |
| Ottawa Senators | 100 | 58.0% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| R | 26 | 37 | 63 |
| L | 17 | 40 | 57 |
| D | 12 | 42 | 54 |