PuckCast Edge
Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
2026-27 forecast · Wed, Jan 20, 7:30 PM ET
Sergei Bobrovsky · 0.877 SV%
The preseason ratings make Ottawa Senators 65.7% to win at home: a clear lean, worth 15.7 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project OTT for 100 points and TOR for 85.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How this is calculated
PuckCast's preseason forecast gives Ottawa Senators a 65.7% chance to win on Wed, Jan 20. The matchup detail follows.
OTT controlled play at 5v5 last season, 51.3% of the expected goals to 47.3%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Linus Ullmark (OTT) saved -23.2 goals above expected to Sergei Bobrovsky's -41.5, on save percentages of 0.891 and 0.877.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction, with confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market, publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Ottawa Senators over Toronto Maple Leafs is where it starts, not where it ends.
No sportsbook has posted a price for this game yet. Prices usually appear roughly a week before puck drop.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
TOR
Sergei Bobrovsky
52 games, 2025-26
OTT
Linus Ullmark
49 games, 2025-26
| TOR | Metric | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 47.3% | xGF% (5v5) | 51.3% |
| — | Shot share | — |
| — | Goals for / game | — |
| — | Goals against / game | — |
| — | Power play | — |
| — | Penalty kill | — |
| — | Faceoffs | — |
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Auston Matthews | C | 40 | 39 | 79 |
 William Nylander | R | 31 | 43 | 74 |
 Kirill Marchenko | R | 25 | 33 | 58 |
 John Tavares | C | 25 | 33 | 58 |
Ottawa Senators
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tim Stützle | C | 32 | 57 | 90 |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 85 | 22.9% |
| Ottawa Senators | 100 | 58.0% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
Final scores from the graded ledger. A loss in overtime also reads L.
Last three seasons: OTT 7, TOR 1
| Date | Game | Final | Our pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | OTT @ TOR | OTT 3, TOR 2 | OTT hit |
| 2026-04-15 | TOR @ OTT | TOR 1, OTT 3 | OTT hit |
| 2026-03-21 | TOR @ OTT | TOR 2, OTT 5 | OTT hit |
| 2026-02-28 | OTT @ TOR | OTT 5, TOR 2 | OTT hit |
| 2025-12-27 | OTT @ TOR | OTT 5, TOR 7 | OTT missed |
| 2025-03-15 | OTT @ TOR | OTT 4, TOR 2 | TOR missed |
| 2025-01-25 | TOR @ OTT | TOR 1, OTT 2 | TOR missed |
| 2024-11-12 | OTT @ TOR | OTT 3, TOR 0 | TOR missed |
 Drake Batherson | R | 26 | 37 | 63 |
|---|
 William Eklund | L | 17 | 40 | 57 |
|---|
 Jake Sanderson | D | 12 | 42 | 54 |
|---|
BOS@
OTT
