Who is favoured, Calgary Flames or Toronto Maple Leafs?

Toronto Maple Leafs, at 52.8% in PuckCast's preseason forecast. That is a rating-based forecast; the full model read, with goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of puck drop.

What is a preseason forecast?

A win probability from each team's regressed preseason rating and home ice, the same ratings behind the 2026-27 projected standings. Those ratings are calibrated at the season level, for standings and playoff odds; this single-game percentage is a plain rating formula and has not been graded on its own yet. It is deliberately unsure about any single game, and the confidence grade says how far it leans.

When does the real prediction publish?

Inside the seven-day window before the game. The model re-scores it on every refresh until puck drop, with the confirmed starting goalies, and this page shows that read instead of the forecast.

Calgary Flames at Toronto Maple Leafs, Tue, Jan 26: prediction and odds forecast

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2026-27 forecast · Tue, Jan 26, 7:00 PM ET

Calgary FlamesCGY

89 proj. pts · 41.6% playoffs

Dustin Wolf · 0.899 SV%

Cvs7:00 PM ET

Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works

The read

Preseason ratings · last season’s record

at 5v5 last season the two were level on expected goals (45.9% to 46.1%); TOR's power play ran at 21.3% against a CGY kill at 80.4%.

In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Dustin Wolf (CGY) saved -17.8 goals above expected to Sergei Bobrovsky's -41.5, on save percentages of 0.899 and 0.877.

None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Toronto Maple Leafs over Calgary Flames is where it starts, not where it ends.

In goal

goalie board

No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.

CGY

Dustin Wolf

SV%: 0.899
GSAx: -17.8
GAA: 3.01
Record: 23-29-3

57 games, 2025-26

TOR

Sergei Bobrovsky

SV%: 0.877
GSAx: -41.5
GAA: 3.07
Record: 27-23-1

52 games, 2025-26

CGY	Metric	TOR
46.1%	xGF% (5v5)	45.9%
48.4%	Shot share	44.8%
2.5	Goals for / game	3.1
3.1	Goals against / game	3.6
16.2%	Power play	21.3%
80.4%	Penalty kill	81.2%
49.3%	Faceoffs	54.2%

Who drives it

2026-27 projected points

Calgary Flames

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Jonathan Huberdeau	L	15	29	45
Matt Coronato	R	18	24	43
Morgan Frost	C	16	22	38
Joel Farabee	L	17	20	36

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Auston Matthews	C	40	39	79

Date	Game	Pick	Score	Result
2026-02-02	TOR @ CGY	CGY	TOR 4–2 CGY	Missed
2025-10-28	CGY @ TOR	TOR	CGY 3–4 TOR	Correct

Team	Proj. points	Playoff odds
Calgary Flames	89	41.6%
Toronto Maple Leafs	85	22.9%

Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.

The read

In goal

Last season, side by side

Who drives it

Schedule around it

Last season, head to head

Season outlook