PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
2026-27 forecast · Thu, Feb 11, 7:00 PM ET
Elvis Merzlikins · 0.883 SV%
The preseason ratings make Columbus Blue Jackets 51.5% to win at home — barely a lean at all, worth 1.5 points over a coin flip, which grades C. Over a full season those same ratings project CBJ for 96 points and OTT for 100.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
OTT controlled play at 5v5 last season, 55.4% of the expected goals to 51.9%; CBJ's power play ran at 18.9% against a OTT kill at 76.4%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Elvis Merzlikins (CBJ) saved -21.9 goals above expected to Linus Ullmark's -23.2, on save percentages of 0.883 and 0.891.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Columbus Blue Jackets over Ottawa Senators is where it starts, not where it ends.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
OTT
Linus Ullmark
49 games, 2025-26
CBJ
Elvis Merzlikins
30 games, 2025-26
| OTT | Metric | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 55.4% | xGF% (5v5) | 51.9% |
| 53.7% | Shot share | 50.5% |
| 3.3 | Goals for / game | 3.0 |
| 3.0 | Goals against / game | 3.1 |
| 22.5% | Power play | 18.9% |
| 76.4% | Penalty kill | 76.0% |
| 54.7% | Faceoffs | 50.6% |
Ottawa Senators
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 32 | 57 | 90 | |
| R | 26 | 37 | 63 | |
| L | 17 | 40 | 57 | |
| D | 12 | 42 | 54 |
Columbus Blue Jackets
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | 18 | 49 | 67 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-20 | OTT @ CBJ | OTT | OTT 4–1 CBJ | Correct |
| 2025-12-29 | CBJ @ OTT | OTT | CBJ 4–1 OTT | Missed |
| 2025-12-11 | OTT @ CBJ | OTT | OTT 6–3 CBJ | Correct |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Ottawa Senators | 100 | 58.0% |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 96 | 47.6% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| R | 25 | 33 | 58 |
| C | 18 | 28 | 45 |
| C | 14 | 23 | 37 |