Who is favoured, Washington Capitals or New York Islanders?

New York Islanders, at 52.3% in PuckCast's preseason forecast. That is a rating-based forecast; the full model read, with goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of puck drop.

What is a preseason forecast?

A win probability from each team's regressed preseason rating and home ice, the same ratings behind the 2026-27 projected standings. Those ratings are calibrated at the season level, for standings and playoff odds; this single-game percentage is a plain rating formula and has not been graded on its own yet. It is deliberately unsure about any single game, and the confidence grade says how far it leans.

When does the real prediction publish?

Inside the seven-day window before the game. The model re-scores it on every refresh until puck drop, with the confirmed starting goalies, and this page shows that read instead of the forecast.

Washington Capitals at New York Islanders, Mon, Mar 1: prediction and odds forecast

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2026-27 forecast · Mon, Mar 1, 7:00 PM ET

Washington CapitalsWSH

98 proj. pts · 51.2% playoffs

Logan Thompson · 0.912 SV%

Cvs7:00 PM ET

New York IslandersNYI

A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works

The read

Preseason ratings · last season’s record

WSH controlled play at 5v5 last season, 49.9% of the expected goals to 47.7%; NYI's power play ran at 16.5% against a WSH kill at 80.1%.

In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Logan Thompson (WSH) saved 2.8 goals above expected to Ilya Sorokin's -6.3, on save percentages of 0.912 and 0.906.

None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. New York Islanders over Washington Capitals is where it starts, not where it ends.

In goal

goalie board

No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.

WSH

Logan Thompson

SV%: 0.912
GSAx: +2.8
GAA: 2.44
Record: 31-21-6

58 games, 2025-26

NYI

Ilya Sorokin

SV%: 0.906
GSAx: -6.3
GAA: 2.68
Record: 29-24-2

55 games, 2025-26

WSH	Metric	NYI
49.9%	xGF% (5v5)	47.7%
49.9%	Shot share	50.4%
3.2	Goals for / game	2.8
2.9	Goals against / game	2.9
17.8%	Power play	16.5%
80.1%	Penalty kill	80.8%
49.3%	Faceoffs	52.6%

Who drives it

2026-27 projected points

Washington Capitals

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Alex Ovechkin	L	34	29	63
Dylan Strome	C	21	39	60
Alex Tuch	R	26	30	57
Jordan Kyrou	R	25	32	56

New York Islanders

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Mathew Barzal	C	16	43	59

Last season, head to head

ledger

Date	Game	Pick	Score	Result
2026-02-02	NYI @ WSH	WSH	NYI 1–4 WSH	Correct
2025-11-30	WSH @ NYI	NYI	WSH 4–1 NYI	Missed
2025-10-31	NYI @ WSH	WSH	NYI 3–1 WSH	Missed
2025-10-11	WSH @ NYI	WSH	WSH 4–2 NYI	Correct

Season outlook

projected standings

Team	Proj. points	Playoff odds
Washington Capitals	98	51.2%
New York Islanders	94	42.2%