PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
2026-27 forecast · Thu, Mar 4, 7:00 PM ET
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen · 0.910 SV%
The preseason ratings make Buffalo Sabres 62.7% to win at home: a clear lean, worth 12.7 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project BUF for 104 points and STL for 94.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How this is calculated
PuckCast's preseason forecast gives Buffalo Sabres a 62.7% chance to win on Thu, Mar 4. The matchup detail follows.
at 5v5 last season the two were level on expected goals (50.7% to 50.3%).
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (BUF) saved -1.3 goals above expected to Jordan Binnington's -37.1, on save percentages of 0.910 and 0.873.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction, with confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market, publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Buffalo Sabres over St. Louis Blues is where it starts, not where it ends.
No sportsbook has posted a price for this game yet. Prices usually appear roughly a week before puck drop.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
STL
Jordan Binnington
41 games, 2025-26
BUF
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
35 games, 2025-26
| STL | Metric | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 50.3% | xGF% (5v5) | 50.7% |
| — | Shot share | — |
| — | Goals for / game | — |
| — | Goals against / game | — |
| — | Power play | — |
| — | Penalty kill | — |
| — | Faceoffs | — |
St. Louis Blues
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 22 | 50 | 72 | |
| R | 22 | 31 | 52 | |
| L | 19 | 30 | 49 | |
| C | 20 | 29 | 49 |
Buffalo Sabres
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 35 | 33 | 68 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-29 | BUF @ STL | STL | BUF 4–2 STL | Missed |
| 2025-11-06 | STL @ BUF | BUF | STL 3–0 BUF | Missed |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Blues | 94 | 50.0% |
| Buffalo Sabres | 104 | 67.2% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| D | 18 | 50 | 68 |
| C | 14 | 30 | 44 |
| R | 17 | 26 | 43 |