Who is favoured, Utah Mammoth or Dallas Stars?

Dallas Stars, at 58.2% in PuckCast's preseason forecast. That is a rating-based forecast; the full model read, with goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of puck drop.

What is a preseason forecast?

A win probability from each team's regressed preseason rating and home ice, the same ratings behind the 2026-27 projected standings. Those ratings are calibrated at the season level, for standings and playoff odds; this single-game percentage is a plain rating formula and has not been graded on its own yet. It is deliberately unsure about any single game, and the confidence grade says how far it leans.

When does the real prediction publish?

Inside the seven-day window before the game. The model re-scores it on every refresh until puck drop, with the confirmed starting goalies, and this page shows that read instead of the forecast.

Utah Mammoth at Dallas Stars, Fri, Apr 9: prediction and odds forecast

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2026-27 forecast · Fri, Apr 9, 8:00 PM ET

Utah MammothUTA

99 proj. pts · 60.8% playoffs

Karel Vejmelka · 0.897 SV%

Bvs8:00 PM ET

Dallas StarsDAL

103 proj. pts · 70.4% playoffs

A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works

The read

Preseason ratings · last season’s record

UTA controlled play at 5v5 last season, 52.6% of the expected goals to 51.2%; DAL's power play ran at 29.7% against a UTA kill at 78.3%.

In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Jake Oettinger (DAL) saved -14.5 goals above expected to Karel Vejmelka's -22.7, on save percentages of 0.899 and 0.897.

None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Dallas Stars over Utah Mammoth is where it starts, not where it ends.

In goal

goalie board

No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.

UTA

Karel Vejmelka

SV%: 0.897
GSAx: -22.7
GAA: 2.75
Record: 38-20-3

64 games, 2025-26

DAL

Jake Oettinger

SV%: 0.899
GSAx: -14.5
GAA: 2.59
Record: 35-12-6

54 games, 2025-26

UTA	Metric	DAL
52.6%	xGF% (5v5)	51.2%
51.2%	Shot share	49.3%
3.3	Goals for / game	3.3
3.0	Goals against / game	2.8
19.1%	Power play	29.7%
78.3%	Penalty kill	80.7%
49.1%	Faceoffs	51.4%

Who drives it

2026-27 projected points

Utah Mammoth

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Clayton Keller	R	27	53	80
Dylan Guenther	R	33	33	66
Logan Cooley	C	29	33	61
Nick Schmaltz	C	22	37	59

Dallas Stars

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Jason Robertson	L	37	49	86

Last season, head to head

ledger

Date	Game	Pick	Score	Result
2026-03-16	UTA @ DAL	DAL	UTA 6–3 DAL	Missed
2026-01-31	DAL @ UTA	DAL	DAL 3–2 UTA	Correct
2026-01-15	DAL @ UTA	UTA	DAL 1–2 UTA	Correct
2025-11-28	UTA @ DAL	DAL	UTA 3–4 DAL	Correct

Season outlook

projected standings

Team	Proj. points	Playoff odds
Utah Mammoth	99	60.8%
Dallas Stars	103	70.4%