St. Louis Blues at Dallas Stars

at 5v5 last season the two were level on expected goals (51.2% to 50.3%); DAL's power play ran at 29.7% against a STL kill at 76.7%.

In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Jake Oettinger (DAL) saved -14.5 goals above expected to Jordan Binnington's -37.1, on save percentages of 0.899 and 0.873.

None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Dallas Stars over St. Louis Blues is where it starts, not where it ends.

Best posted price per side across 5 books, taken Sep 17. The percentages beside them are what those prices imply with the book’s margin removed.

Total 5.5 · over -108 at DraftKings · under +100 at Bovada. No lean either way: the preseason forecast has no goal model, so the model’s total publishes with the slate.

This is a rating forecast against a posted price, not a bet. No stake is sized and nothing here enters the graded ledger. The full model read publishes inside seven days of puck drop and replaces these numbers.

No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.

STL

Jordan Binnington

SV%

0.873

GSAx

-37.1

GAA

3.33

Record

13-20-7

41 games, 2025-26

DAL

Jake Oettinger

SV%

0.899

GSAx

-14.5

GAA

2.59

Record

35-12-6

54 games, 2025-26