PuckCast Edge
Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
Final · Tue, Oct 13, 6:30 PM ET
Samuel Montembeault · 0.872 SV%
The preseason ratings make Montréal Canadiens 53.1% to win at home: barely a lean at all, worth 3.1 points over a coin flip, which grades C. Over a full season those same ratings project MTL for 102 points and BUF for 104.
The model leaned Montréal Canadiens at 53.1%.
at 5v5 last season the two were level on expected goals (50.0% to 50.7%).
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (BUF) saved -1.3 goals above expected to Samuel Montembeault's -23.9, on save percentages of 0.910 and 0.872.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction, with confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market, publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Montréal Canadiens over Buffalo Sabres is where it starts, not where it ends.
No sportsbook has posted a price for this game yet. Prices usually appear roughly a week before puck drop.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
BUF
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
35 games, 2025-26
MTL
Samuel Montembeault
25 games, 2025-26
| BUF | Metric | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 50.7% | xGF% (5v5) | 50.0% |
| — | Shot share | — |
| — | Goals for / game | — |
| — | Goals against / game | — |
| — | Power play | — |
| — | Penalty kill | — |
| — | Faceoffs | — |
Buffalo Sabres
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tage Thompson | C | 35 | 33 | 68 |
 Rasmus Dahlin | D | 18 | 50 | 68 |
 Ryan McLeod | C | 14 | 30 | 44 |
 Jack Quinn | R | 17 | 26 | 43 |
Montréal Canadiens
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nick Suzuki | C | 29 | 60 | 90 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | MTL @ BUF | BUF | MTL 4–2 BUF | Missed |
| 2026-01-22 | BUF @ MTL | MTL | BUF 4–2 MTL | Missed |
| 2026-01-15 | MTL @ BUF | MTL | MTL 3–5 BUF | Missed |
| 2025-10-20 | BUF @ MTL | MTL | BUF 2–4 MTL | Correct |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Sabres | 104 | 67.2% |
| Montréal Canadiens | 102 | 61.2% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
 Lane Hutson | D | 11 | 67 | 77 |
|---|
 Cole Caufield | R | 41 | 35 | 76 |
|---|
 Juraj Slafkovský | L | 24 | 38 | 62 |
|---|
SJS@
MTL
