PuckCast Edge
Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
Final · Wed, Oct 21, 7:30 PM ET
Dan Vladar · 0.906 SV%
The preseason ratings make Buffalo Sabres 59.3% to win at home: a modest lean, worth 9.3 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project BUF for 104 points and PHI for 98.
The model leaned Buffalo Sabres at 59.3%.
PuckCast had Buffalo Sabres at 59.3% to win this game on Wed, Oct 21. The matchup detail follows.
BUF controlled play at 5v5 last season, 51.7% of the expected goals to 39.5%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (BUF) saved -1.3 goals above expected to Dan Vladar's -5.5, on save percentages of 0.910 and 0.906.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction, with confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market, publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Buffalo Sabres over Philadelphia Flyers is where it starts, not where it ends.
No sportsbook has posted a price for this game yet. Prices usually appear roughly a week before puck drop.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
PHI
Dan Vladar
52 games, 2025-26
BUF
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
35 games, 2025-26
| PHI | Metric | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 39.5% | xGF% (5v5) | 51.7% |
| — | Shot share | — |
| — | Goals for / game | — |
| — | Goals against / game | — |
| — | Power play | — |
| — | Penalty kill | — |
| — | Faceoffs | — |
Philadelphia Flyers
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Travis Konecny | R | 25 | 39 | 64 |
 Matvei Michkov | R | 24 | 35 | 59 |
 Trevor Zegras | C | 19 | 31 | 50 |
 Owen Tippett | R | 23 | 22 | 44 |
Buffalo Sabres
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tage Thompson | C | 35 | 33 | 68 |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Flyers | 98 | 53.4% |
| Buffalo Sabres | 104 | 67.2% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
Final scores from the graded ledger. A loss in overtime also reads L.
Last three seasons: BUF 5, PHI 4
| Date | Game | Final | Our pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-14 | PHI @ BUF | PHI 2, BUF 5 | BUF hit |
| 2025-12-18 | PHI @ BUF | PHI 3, BUF 5 | BUF hit |
| 2025-12-03 | BUF @ PHI | BUF 2, PHI 5 | BUF missed |
| 2025-04-17 | PHI @ BUF | PHI 4, BUF 5 | BUF hit |
| 2025-03-29 | BUF @ PHI | BUF 4, PHI 7 | PHI hit |
| 2024-11-16 | BUF @ PHI | BUF 2, PHI 5 | PHI hit |
| 2024-04-05 | PHI @ BUF | PHI 2, BUF 4 | BUF hit |
| 2023-11-03 | PHI @ BUF | PHI 5, BUF 1 | PHI hit |
 Rasmus Dahlin | D | 18 | 50 | 68 |
|---|
 Ryan McLeod | C | 14 | 30 | 44 |
|---|
 Jack Quinn | R | 17 | 26 | 43 |
|---|
BUF@
ANA
