PuckCast Edge
Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
Final · Tue, Oct 20, 7:00 PM ET
Alex Nedeljkovic · 0.896 SV%
The preseason ratings make Montréal Canadiens 63.5% to win at home: a clear lean, worth 13.5 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project MTL for 102 points and SJS for 91.
The model leaned Montréal Canadiens at 63.5%.
PuckCast had Montréal Canadiens at 63.5% to win this game on Tue, Oct 20. The matchup detail follows.
MTL controlled play at 5v5 last season, 53.2% of the expected goals to 40.3%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Alex Nedeljkovic (SJS) saved -14.6 goals above expected to Samuel Montembeault's -23.9, on save percentages of 0.896 and 0.872.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction, with confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market, publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Montréal Canadiens over San Jose Sharks is where it starts, not where it ends.
No sportsbook has posted a price for this game yet. Prices usually appear roughly a week before puck drop.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
SJS
Alex Nedeljkovic
40 games, 2025-26
MTL
Samuel Montembeault
25 games, 2025-26
| SJS | Metric | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 40.3% | xGF% (5v5) | 53.2% |
| — | Shot share | — |
| — | Goals for / game | — |
| — | Goals against / game | — |
| — | Power play | — |
| — | Penalty kill | — |
| — | Faceoffs | — |
San Jose Sharks
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Macklin Celebrini | C | 39 | 60 | 99 |
 Will Smith | C | 25 | 36 | 60 |
 Mason Marchment | L | 17 | 24 | 41 |
 Tyler Toffoli | C | 19 | 22 | 41 |
Montréal Canadiens
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lane Hutson | D | 11 | 67 | 77 |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| San Jose Sharks | 91 | 45.4% |
| Montréal Canadiens | 102 | 61.2% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
Final scores from the graded ledger. A loss in overtime also reads L.
Last three seasons: MTL 3, SJS 3
| Date | Game | Final | Our pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | SJS @ MTL | SJS 4, MTL 2 | MTL missed |
| 2026-03-03 | MTL @ SJS | MTL 5, SJS 7 | MTL missed |
| 2025-02-27 | SJS @ MTL | SJS 3, MTL 4 | MTL hit |
| 2025-02-04 | MTL @ SJS | MTL 4, SJS 3 | MTL hit |
| 2024-01-11 | SJS @ MTL | SJS 3, MTL 2 | MTL missed |
| 2023-11-24 | MTL @ SJS | MTL 4, SJS 3 | MTL hit |
 Cole Caufield | R | 41 | 35 | 76 |
|---|
 Juraj Slafkovský | L | 24 | 38 | 62 |
|---|
 Noah Dobson | D | 12 | 37 | 48 |
|---|
MTL@
STL
