PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
2026-27 forecast · Tue, Oct 20, 7:00 PM ET
Elvis Merzlikins · 0.883 SV%
The preseason ratings make Columbus Blue Jackets 62.5% to win at home — a clear lean, worth 12.4 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project CBJ for 96 points and TOR for 85.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
CBJ controlled play at 5v5 last season, 51.9% of the expected goals to 45.9%; CBJ's power play ran at 18.9% against a TOR kill at 81.2%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Elvis Merzlikins (CBJ) saved -21.9 goals above expected to Sergei Bobrovsky's -41.5, on save percentages of 0.883 and 0.877.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Columbus Blue Jackets over Toronto Maple Leafs is where it starts, not where it ends.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
TOR
Sergei Bobrovsky
52 games, 2025-26
CBJ
Elvis Merzlikins
30 games, 2025-26
| TOR | Metric | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 45.9% | xGF% (5v5) | 51.9% |
| 44.8% | Shot share | 50.5% |
| 3.1 | Goals for / game | 3.0 |
| 3.6 | Goals against / game | 3.1 |
| 21.3% | Power play | 18.9% |
| 81.2% | Penalty kill | 76.0% |
| 54.2% | Faceoffs | 50.6% |
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 40 | 39 | 79 | |
| R | 31 | 43 | 74 | |
| L | 24 | 37 | 61 | |
| C | 25 | 33 | 58 |
Columbus Blue Jackets
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | 18 | 49 | 67 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-26 | TOR @ CBJ | CBJ | TOR 2–1 CBJ | Missed |
| 2025-11-20 | CBJ @ TOR | TOR | CBJ 3–2 TOR | Missed |
| 2025-10-29 | TOR @ CBJ | CBJ | TOR 3–6 CBJ | Correct |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 85 | 22.9% |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 96 | 47.6% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| R | 25 | 33 | 58 |
| C | 18 | 28 | 45 |
| C | 14 | 23 | 37 |