PuckCast Edge
Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
Final · Thu, Oct 22, 7:00 PM ET
Igor Shesterkin · 0.912 SV%
The preseason ratings make Toronto Maple Leafs 50.3% to win at home: barely a lean at all, worth 0.3 points over a coin flip, which grades C. Over a full season those same ratings project TOR for 85 points and NYR for 91.
The model leaned Toronto Maple Leafs at 50.3%.
PuckCast had Toronto Maple Leafs at 50.3% to win this game on Thu, Oct 22. The matchup detail follows.
NYR controlled play at 5v5 last season, 51.1% of the expected goals to 47.3%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Igor Shesterkin (NYR) saved 2.2 goals above expected to Sergei Bobrovsky's -41.5, on save percentages of 0.912 and 0.877.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction, with confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market, publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Toronto Maple Leafs over New York Rangers is where it starts, not where it ends.
No sportsbook has posted a price for this game yet. Prices usually appear roughly a week before puck drop.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
NYR
Igor Shesterkin
51 games, 2025-26
TOR
Sergei Bobrovsky
52 games, 2025-26
| NYR | Metric | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 51.1% | xGF% (5v5) | 47.3% |
| — | Shot share | — |
| — | Goals for / game | — |
| — | Goals against / game | — |
| — | Power play | — |
| — | Penalty kill | — |
| — | Faceoffs | — |
New York Rangers
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Adam Fox | D | 11 | 51 | 61 |
 Mika Zibanejad | C | 24 | 37 | 61 |
 J.T. Miller | C | 19 | 37 | 56 |
 Pavel Dorofeyev | R | 32 | 22 | 54 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Auston Matthews | C | 40 | 39 | 79 |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| New York Rangers | 91 | 37.5% |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 85 | 22.9% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
Final scores from the graded ledger. A loss in overtime also reads L.
Last three seasons: TOR 6, NYR 3
| Date | Game | Final | Our pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-25 | NYR @ TOR | NYR 3, TOR 4 | NYR missed |
| 2026-03-05 | TOR @ NYR | TOR 2, NYR 6 | NYR hit |
| 2025-10-16 | NYR @ TOR | NYR 1, TOR 2 | TOR hit |
| 2025-03-20 | TOR @ NYR | TOR 4, NYR 3 | NYR missed |
| 2025-02-28 | TOR @ NYR | TOR 3, NYR 2 | TOR hit |
| 2024-10-19 | NYR @ TOR | NYR 4, TOR 1 | NYR hit |
| 2024-03-02 | NYR @ TOR | NYR 4, TOR 5 | TOR hit |
| 2023-12-19 | NYR @ TOR | NYR 5, TOR 2 | TOR missed |
 William Nylander | R | 31 | 43 | 74 |
|---|
 Darren Raddysh | D | 13 | 34 | 47 |
|---|
 Morgan Rielly | D | 7 | 29 | 36 |
|---|
TOR@
SEA
