PuckCast Edge
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2026-27 forecast · Thu, Oct 22, 9:00 PM ET
Tristan Jarry · 0.882 SV%
The preseason ratings make Carolina Hurricanes 51.6% to win on the road — barely a lean at all, worth 1.6 points over a coin flip, which grades C. Over a full season those same ratings project CAR for 105 points and EDM for 97.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
CAR controlled play at 5v5 last season, 56.5% of the expected goals to 51.0%; CAR's power play ran at 23.4% against a EDM kill at 75.9%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Brandon Bussi (CAR) saved -14.9 goals above expected to Tristan Jarry's -23.1, on save percentages of 0.895 and 0.882.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Carolina Hurricanes over Edmonton Oilers is where it starts, not where it ends.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
CAR
Brandon Bussi
39 games, 2025-26
EDM
Tristan Jarry
33 games, 2025-26
| CAR | Metric | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 56.5% | xGF% (5v5) | 51.0% |
| 57.3% | Shot share | 52.3% |
| 3.5 | Goals for / game | 3.4 |
| 2.7 | Goals against / game | 3.3 |
| 23.4% | Power play | 30.5% |
| 82.7% | Penalty kill | 75.9% |
| 49.8% | Faceoffs | 52.5% |
Carolina Hurricanes
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 29 | 47 | 76 | |
| R | 33 | 38 | 71 | |
| R | 26 | 37 | 63 | |
| L | 22 | 36 | 58 |
Edmonton Oilers
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 40 | 87 | 127 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | CAR @ EDM | CAR | CAR 6–3 EDM | Correct |
| 2025-11-15 | EDM @ CAR | CAR | EDM 4–3 CAR | Missed |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Carolina Hurricanes | 105 | 69.3% |
| Edmonton Oilers | 97 | 60.5% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| C | 37 | 58 | 95 |
| D | 17 | 59 | 76 |
| C | 18 | 34 | 53 |