PuckCast Edge
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2026-27 forecast · Thu, Oct 22, 10:00 PM ET
Kevin Lankinen · 0.875 SV%
The preseason ratings make Detroit Red Wings 54.8% to win on the road — barely a lean at all, worth 4.8 points over a coin flip, which grades C. Over a full season those same ratings project DET for 92 points and VAN for 80.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
DET controlled play at 5v5 last season, 48.4% of the expected goals to 43.2%; DET's power play ran at 22.6% against a VAN kill at 71.5%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season John Gibson (DET) saved -12.5 goals above expected to Kevin Lankinen's -44.4, on save percentages of 0.901 and 0.875.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Detroit Red Wings over Vancouver Canucks is where it starts, not where it ends.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
DET
John Gibson
57 games, 2025-26
VAN
Kevin Lankinen
47 games, 2025-26
| DET | Metric | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 48.4% | xGF% (5v5) | 43.2% |
| 50.4% | Shot share | 46.5% |
| 2.9 | Goals for / game | 2.6 |
| 3.1 | Goals against / game | 3.8 |
| 22.6% | Power play | 21.8% |
| 77.1% | Penalty kill | 71.5% |
| 51.0% | Faceoffs | 49.3% |
Detroit Red Wings
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L | 29 | 52 | 81 | |
| R | 35 | 39 | 74 | |
| C | 28 | 35 | 63 | |
| D | 9 | 43 | 52 |
Vancouver Canucks
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 23 | 42 | 65 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-08 | VAN @ DET | DET | VAN 1–5 DET | Correct |
| 2025-12-08 | DET @ VAN | DET | DET 4–0 VAN | Correct |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Red Wings | 92 | 38.1% |
| Vancouver Canucks | 80 | 21.8% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| R | 25 | 29 | 53 |
| C | 18 | 28 | 46 |
| D | 7 | 36 | 43 |