PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
2026-27 forecast · Tue, Oct 27, 10:30 PM ET
Alex Nedeljkovic · 0.896 SV%
The preseason ratings make Buffalo Sabres 55.6% to win on the road — a modest lean, worth 5.7 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project BUF for 104 points and SJS for 91.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
BUF controlled play at 5v5 last season, 50.7% of the expected goals to 47.0%; BUF's power play ran at 19.7% against a SJS kill at 76.4%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (BUF) saved -1.3 goals above expected to Alex Nedeljkovic's -14.6, on save percentages of 0.910 and 0.896.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Buffalo Sabres over San Jose Sharks is where it starts, not where it ends.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
BUF
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
35 games, 2025-26
SJS
Alex Nedeljkovic
40 games, 2025-26
| BUF | Metric | SJS |
|---|---|---|
| 50.7% | xGF% (5v5) | 47.0% |
| 49.7% | Shot share | 46.5% |
| 3.4 | Goals for / game | 3.0 |
| 2.9 | Goals against / game | 3.5 |
| 19.7% | Power play | 21.2% |
| 81.0% | Penalty kill | 76.4% |
| 45.9% | Faceoffs | 47.8% |
Buffalo Sabres
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 35 | 33 | 68 | |
| D | 18 | 50 | 68 | |
| C | 14 | 30 | 44 | |
| R | 17 | 26 | 43 |
San Jose Sharks
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 39 | 60 | 99 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | BUF @ SJS | BUF | BUF 5–0 SJS | Correct |
| 2026-03-10 | SJS @ BUF | BUF | SJS 3–6 BUF | Correct |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Sabres | 104 | 67.2% |
| San Jose Sharks | 91 | 45.4% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| C | 25 | 36 | 60 |
| L | 17 | 24 | 41 |
| C | 19 | 22 | 41 |