PuckCast Edge
Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
Final · Sat, Oct 24, 7:00 PM ET
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen · 0.910 SV%
The preseason ratings make Washington Capitals 50.3% to win at home: barely a lean at all, worth 0.3 points over a coin flip, which grades C. Over a full season those same ratings project WSH for 98 points and BUF for 104.
The model leaned Washington Capitals at 50.3%.
PuckCast had Washington Capitals at 50.3% to win this game on Sat, Oct 24. The matchup detail follows.
at 5v5 last season the two were level on expected goals (51.9% to 51.7%).
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Logan Thompson (WSH) saved 2.8 goals above expected to Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen's -1.3, on save percentages of 0.912 and 0.910.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction, with confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market, publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Washington Capitals over Buffalo Sabres is where it starts, not where it ends.
No sportsbook has posted a price for this game yet. Prices usually appear roughly a week before puck drop.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
BUF
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
35 games, 2025-26
WSH
Logan Thompson
58 games, 2025-26
| BUF | Metric | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 51.7% | xGF% (5v5) | 51.9% |
| — | Shot share | — |
| — | Goals for / game | — |
| — | Goals against / game | — |
| — | Power play | — |
| — | Penalty kill | — |
| — | Faceoffs | — |
Buffalo Sabres
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tage Thompson | C | 35 | 33 | 68 |
 Rasmus Dahlin | D | 18 | 50 | 68 |
 Ryan McLeod | C | 14 | 30 | 44 |
 Jack Quinn | R | 17 | 26 | 43 |
Washington Capitals
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Alex Ovechkin | L | 34 | 29 | 63 |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Sabres | 104 | 67.2% |
| Washington Capitals | 98 | 51.2% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
Final scores from the graded ledger. A loss in overtime also reads L.
Last three seasons: WSH 4, BUF 5
| Date | Game | Final | Our pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | BUF @ WSH | BUF 2, WSH 6 | BUF missed |
| 2026-03-12 | WSH @ BUF | WSH 2, BUF 1 | BUF missed |
| 2025-11-01 | WSH @ BUF | WSH 3, BUF 4 | BUF hit |
| 2025-03-30 | BUF @ WSH | BUF 8, WSH 5 | WSH missed |
| 2025-01-06 | WSH @ BUF | WSH 4, BUF 5 | WSH missed |
| 2024-12-14 | BUF @ WSH | BUF 2, WSH 4 | WSH hit |
| 2024-04-11 | WSH @ BUF | WSH 2, BUF 4 | BUF hit |
| 2024-04-02 | WSH @ BUF | WSH 2, BUF 6 | BUF hit |
 Dylan Strome | C | 21 | 39 | 60 |
|---|
 Alex Tuch | R | 26 | 30 | 57 |
|---|
 Jordan Kyrou | R | 25 | 32 | 56 |
|---|
MIN@
WSH
