PuckCast Edge
Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
Model read · Tue, Nov 3
Projected score DAL 3.2 – 2.5 WSH expected goals from the goals model
Capitals project at 51% as the home lean — a C-tier edge worth 0.6 pts over a coin flip.
The model picks Capitals at 50.6%, a 0.6-point edge over a coin flip. How this is calculated.
PuckCast gives Capitals a 50.6% chance to win on Tue, Nov 3. DAL is 8-5-1 and WSH is 8-5-0. In goal: DAL Jake Oettinger, WSH Logan Thompson. The matchup detail follows.
Model favors Capitals at 51% with a 0.6-point edge.
Net-positive signal profile for Capitals. Grade: C.
DAL carries roughly a +0.8pp rest edge before model adjustments.
| Book | DAL | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Opening | -109 | -110 |
| Caesars | -108 | -110 |
| DraftKings | -108 | -112 |
| BetMGM | -110 | -110 |
| Fanatics | -110 | -110 |
| FanDuel | -110 | -110 |
| BetRivers | -114 | -106 |
Market: 6 books, best price at BetRivers, lines as of Nov 3, 2:24 PM ET
Moneyline prices only — not a comparison against PuckCast’s model. See PuckCast Edge for the model-vs-market read.
The line has barely moved since open (0.0 pts of win probability).
Final scores from the graded ledger. A loss in overtime also reads L.
Last three seasons: WSH 1, DAL 5
| Date | Game | Final | Our pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-07 | DAL @ WSH | DAL 4, WSH 1 | WSH missed |
| 2025-10-28 | WSH @ DAL | WSH 0, DAL 1 | DAL hit |
| 2024-12-16 | WSH @ DAL | WSH 1, DAL 3 | DAL hit |
| 2024-10-17 | DAL @ WSH | DAL 2, WSH 3 | WSH hit |
| 2024-01-27 | WSH @ DAL | WSH 4, DAL 5 | DAL hit |
| 2023-12-07 | DAL @ WSH | DAL 5, WSH 4 | WSH missed |
3.22
DAL xG
2.46
WSH xG
5.68
Expected total
The lean against each posted line is part of PuckCast Edge — see “Model vs. market” below.
DAL
DALEach team's own xGF% and CF% at 5v5 this season, shown side by side — not a prediction of how tonight's game itself will split. Raw and unadjusted: no score, venue or schedule adjustment.
DAL top scorers
WSH top scorers
Six more reads on this game, past what’s free above: who’s out, how the starters are trending, the on-ice splits, the model’s read against the market, priced props and same-game combinations.
| Side | Grade | Market | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | C | |||
| WSH | C |
PuckCast Edge
Edge members see where the model and the market disagree on this game, and the best price to take.
234 graded Edge plays this season across 35 nights, each recorded before puck drop and graded at the price when captured. See every play
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