PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
2026-27 forecast · Thu, Nov 12, 8:00 PM ET
Spencer Knight · 0.902 SV%
The preseason ratings make Buffalo Sabres 60.4% to win on the road — a clear lean, worth 10.4 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project BUF for 104 points and CHI for 83.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
BUF controlled play at 5v5 last season, 50.7% of the expected goals to 43.7%; BUF's power play ran at 19.7% against a CHI kill at 83.6%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (BUF) saved -1.3 goals above expected to Spencer Knight's -12.5, on save percentages of 0.910 and 0.902.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Buffalo Sabres over Chicago Blackhawks is where it starts, not where it ends.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
BUF
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
35 games, 2025-26
CHI
Spencer Knight
55 games, 2025-26
| BUF | Metric | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 50.7% | xGF% (5v5) | 43.7% |
| 49.7% | Shot share | 45.1% |
| 3.4 | Goals for / game | 2.6 |
| 2.9 | Goals against / game | 3.3 |
| 19.7% | Power play | 17.0% |
| 81.0% | Penalty kill | 83.6% |
| 45.9% | Faceoffs | 46.0% |
Buffalo Sabres
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 35 | 33 | 68 | |
| D | 18 | 50 | 68 | |
| C | 14 | 30 | 44 | |
| R | 17 | 26 | 43 |
Chicago Blackhawks
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 31 | 52 | 83 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | BUF @ CHI | BUF | BUF 5–1 CHI | Correct |
| 2025-11-21 | CHI @ BUF | BUF | CHI 3–9 BUF | Correct |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Sabres | 104 | 67.2% |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 83 | 25.9% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| R | 18 | 36 | 54 |
| C | 15 | 29 | 44 |
| C | 16 | 25 | 41 |