PuckCast Edge
Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
2026-27 forecast · Thu, Nov 19, 7:00 PM ET
Logan Thompson · 0.912 SV%
The preseason ratings make Washington Capitals 50.3% to win at home: barely a lean at all, worth 0.3 points over a coin flip, which grades C. Over a full season those same ratings project WSH for 98 points and BUF for 104.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How this is calculated
PuckCast's preseason forecast gives Washington Capitals a 50.3% chance to win on Thu, Nov 19. The matchup detail follows.
at 5v5 last season the two were level on expected goals (49.9% to 50.7%).
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Logan Thompson (WSH) saved 2.8 goals above expected to Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen's -1.3, on save percentages of 0.912 and 0.910.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction, with confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market, publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Washington Capitals over Buffalo Sabres is where it starts, not where it ends.
No sportsbook has posted a price for this game yet. Prices usually appear roughly a week before puck drop.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
BUF
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
35 games, 2025-26
WSH
Logan Thompson
58 games, 2025-26
| BUF | Metric | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 50.7% | xGF% (5v5) | 49.9% |
| — | Shot share | — |
| — | Goals for / game | — |
| — | Goals against / game | — |
| — | Power play | — |
| — | Penalty kill | — |
| — | Faceoffs | — |
Buffalo Sabres
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tage Thompson | C | 35 | 33 | 68 |
 Rasmus Dahlin | D | 18 | 50 | 68 |
 Ryan McLeod | C | 14 | 30 | 44 |
 Jack Quinn | R | 17 | 26 | 43 |
Washington Capitals
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Alex Ovechkin | L | 34 | 29 | 63 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | BUF @ WSH | BUF | BUF 2–6 WSH | Missed |
| 2026-03-12 | WSH @ BUF | BUF | WSH 2–1 BUF | Missed |
| 2025-11-01 | WSH @ BUF | BUF | WSH 3–4 BUF | Correct |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Sabres | 104 | 67.2% |
| Washington Capitals | 98 | 51.2% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
 Dylan Strome | C | 21 | 39 | 60 |
|---|
 Alex Tuch | R | 26 | 30 | 57 |
|---|
 Jordan Kyrou | R | 25 | 32 | 56 |
|---|
FLA@
WSH
