PuckCast Edge
Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
2026-27 forecast · Wed, Nov 11, 7:00 PM ET
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen · 0.910 SV%
The preseason ratings make Buffalo Sabres 55.5% to win at home: a modest lean, worth 5.5 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project BUF for 104 points and TBL for 104.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How this is calculated
PuckCast's preseason forecast gives Buffalo Sabres a 55.5% chance to win on Wed, Nov 11. The matchup detail follows.
TBL controlled play at 5v5 last season, 54.1% of the expected goals to 50.7%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Andrei Vasilevskiy (TBL) saved 1.5 goals above expected to Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen's -1.3, on save percentages of 0.912 and 0.910.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction, with confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market, publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Buffalo Sabres over Tampa Bay Lightning is where it starts, not where it ends.
No sportsbook has posted a price for this game yet. Prices usually appear roughly a week before puck drop.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy
58 games, 2025-26
BUF
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
35 games, 2025-26
| TBL | Metric | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 54.1% | xGF% (5v5) | 50.7% |
| — | Shot share | — |
| — | Goals for / game | — |
| — | Goals against / game | — |
| — | Power play | — |
| — | Penalty kill | — |
| — | Faceoffs | — |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nikita Kucherov | R | 33 | 67 | 100 |
 Brandon Hagel | L | 31 | 43 | 74 |
 Jake Guentzel | C | 32 | 40 | 72 |
 Brayden Point | C | 29 | 36 | 65 |
Buffalo Sabres
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tage Thompson | C | 35 | 33 | 68 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | TBL @ BUF | TBL | TBL 2–4 BUF | Missed |
| 2026-03-08 | TBL @ BUF | TBL | TBL 7–8 BUF | Missed |
| 2026-02-28 | BUF @ TBL | TBL | BUF 6–2 TBL | Missed |
| 2026-02-03 | BUF @ TBL | TBL | BUF 3–4 TBL | Correct |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 104 | 65.7% |
| Buffalo Sabres | 104 | 67.2% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
 Rasmus Dahlin | D | 18 | 50 | 68 |
|---|
 Ryan McLeod | C | 14 | 30 | 44 |
|---|
 Jack Quinn | R | 17 | 26 | 43 |
|---|
BUF@
PHI
