Who is favoured, Pittsburgh Penguins or Dallas Stars?

Dallas Stars, at 58.9% in PuckCast's preseason forecast. That is a rating-based forecast; the full model read, with goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of puck drop.

What is a preseason forecast?

A win probability from each team's regressed preseason rating and home ice, the same ratings behind the 2026-27 projected standings. Those ratings are calibrated at the season level, for standings and playoff odds; this single-game percentage is a plain rating formula and has not been graded on its own yet. It is deliberately unsure about any single game, and the confidence grade says how far it leans.

When does the real prediction publish?

Inside the seven-day window before the game. The model re-scores it on every refresh until puck drop, with the confirmed starting goalies, and this page shows that read instead of the forecast.

Pittsburgh Penguins at Dallas Stars, Sun, Nov 22: prediction and odds forecast

PuckCast Edge

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2026-27 forecast · Sun, Nov 22, 7:00 PM ET

Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT

97 proj. pts · 50.9% playoffs

Arturs Silovs · 0.888 SV%

Bvs7:00 PM ET

Dallas StarsDAL

A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works

The read

Preseason ratings · last season’s record

at 5v5 last season the two were level on expected goals (51.2% to 50.9%); DAL's power play ran at 29.7% against a PIT kill at 81.9%.

In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Jake Oettinger (DAL) saved -14.5 goals above expected to Arturs Silovs's -23.2, on save percentages of 0.899 and 0.888.

None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Dallas Stars over Pittsburgh Penguins is where it starts, not where it ends.

In goal

goalie board

No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.

PIT

Arturs Silovs

SV%: 0.888
GSAx: -23.2
GAA: 3.07
Record: 19-12-8

39 games, 2025-26

DAL

Jake Oettinger

SV%: 0.899
GSAx: -14.5
GAA: 2.59
Record: 35-12-6

54 games, 2025-26

PIT	Metric	DAL
50.9%	xGF% (5v5)	51.2%
51.1%	Shot share	49.3%
3.4	Goals for / game	3.3
3.1	Goals against / game	2.8
23.5%	Power play	29.7%
81.9%	Penalty kill	80.7%
48.1%	Faceoffs	51.4%

Who drives it

2026-27 projected points

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Sidney Crosby	C	29	47	76
Evgeni Malkin	C	21	39	59
Erik Karlsson	D	11	38	49
Bryan Rust	R	21	26	47

Dallas Stars

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Jason Robertson	L	37	49	86

Date	Game	Pick	Score	Result
2026-03-28	DAL @ PIT	DAL	DAL 6–3 PIT	Correct
2025-12-07	PIT @ DAL	DAL	PIT 2–3 DAL	Correct

Team	Proj. points	Playoff odds
Pittsburgh Penguins	97	50.9%
Dallas Stars	103	70.4%

Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.

The read

In goal

Last season, side by side

Who drives it

Schedule around it

Last season, head to head

Season outlook