PuckCast Edge
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2026-27 forecast · Tue, Dec 29, 7:00 PM ET
Igor Shesterkin · 0.912 SV%
The preseason ratings make New York Rangers 54.5% to win at home — barely a lean at all, worth 4.5 points over a coin flip, which grades C. Over a full season those same ratings project NYR for 91 points and DET for 92.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
at 5v5 last season the two were level on expected goals (48.0% to 48.4%); NYR's power play ran at 24.6% against a DET kill at 77.1%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Igor Shesterkin (NYR) saved 2.2 goals above expected to John Gibson's -12.5, on save percentages of 0.912 and 0.901.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. New York Rangers over Detroit Red Wings is where it starts, not where it ends.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
DET
John Gibson
57 games, 2025-26
NYR
Igor Shesterkin
51 games, 2025-26
| DET | Metric | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 48.4% | xGF% (5v5) | 48.0% |
| 50.4% | Shot share | 46.6% |
| 2.9 | Goals for / game | 2.9 |
| 3.1 | Goals against / game | 3.0 |
| 22.6% | Power play | 24.6% |
| 77.1% | Penalty kill | 79.9% |
| 51.0% | Faceoffs | 54.5% |
Detroit Red Wings
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L | 29 | 52 | 81 | |
| R | 35 | 39 | 74 | |
| C | 28 | 35 | 63 | |
| D | 9 | 43 | 52 |
New York Rangers
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | 11 | 51 | 61 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | DET @ NYR | DET | DET 1–4 NYR | Missed |
| 2025-11-16 | DET @ NYR | DET | DET 2–1 NYR | Correct |
| 2025-11-07 | NYR @ DET | DET | NYR 4–1 DET | Missed |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Red Wings | 92 | 38.1% |
| New York Rangers | 91 | 37.5% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| C | 24 | 37 | 61 |
| C | 19 | 37 | 56 |
| R | 32 | 22 | 54 |