PuckCast Edge
Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
2026-27 forecast · Thu, Dec 31, 9:00 PM ET
Igor Shesterkin · 0.912 SV%
The preseason ratings make Dallas Stars 62.7% to win at home: a clear lean, worth 12.7 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project DAL for 103 points and NYR for 91.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How this is calculated
PuckCast's preseason forecast gives Dallas Stars a 62.7% chance to win on Thu, Dec 31. The matchup detail follows.
at 5v5 last season the two were level on expected goals (52.0% to 51.1%).
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Igor Shesterkin (NYR) saved 2.2 goals above expected to Jake Oettinger's -14.5, on save percentages of 0.912 and 0.899.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction, with confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market, publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Dallas Stars over New York Rangers is where it starts, not where it ends.
No sportsbook has posted a price for this game yet. Prices usually appear roughly a week before puck drop.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
NYR
Igor Shesterkin
51 games, 2025-26
DAL
Jake Oettinger
54 games, 2025-26
| NYR | Metric | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 51.1% | xGF% (5v5) | 52.0% |
| — | Shot share | — |
| — | Goals for / game | — |
| — | Goals against / game | — |
| — | Power play | — |
| — | Penalty kill | — |
| — | Faceoffs | — |
New York Rangers
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Adam Fox | D | 11 | 51 | 61 |
 Mika Zibanejad | C | 24 | 37 | 61 |
 J.T. Miller | C | 19 | 37 | 56 |
 Pavel Dorofeyev | R | 32 | 22 | 54 |
Dallas Stars
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jason Robertson | L | 37 | 49 | 86 |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| New York Rangers | 91 | 37.5% |
| Dallas Stars | 103 | 70.4% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
Final scores from the graded ledger. A loss in overtime also reads L.
Last three seasons: DAL 3, NYR 3
| Date | Game | Final | Our pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | NYR @ DAL | NYR 0, DAL 2 | DAL hit |
| 2025-12-02 | DAL @ NYR | DAL 2, NYR 3 | DAL missed |
| 2025-01-07 | DAL @ NYR | DAL 5, NYR 4 | DAL hit |
| 2024-12-20 | NYR @ DAL | NYR 3, DAL 1 | DAL missed |
| 2024-02-20 | DAL @ NYR | DAL 1, NYR 3 | NYR hit |
| 2023-11-20 | NYR @ DAL | NYR 3, DAL 6 | DAL hit |
 Mikko Rantanen | R | 30 | 55 | 85 |
|---|
 Wyatt Johnston | C | 42 | 42 | 84 |
|---|
 Roope Hintz | C | 22 | 32 | 54 |
|---|
DAL@
SJS
