PuckCast Edge
Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
2026-27 forecast · Mon, Jan 4, 8:00 PM ET
John Gibson · 0.901 SV%
The preseason ratings make Dallas Stars 62.2% to win at home: a clear lean, worth 12.2 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project DAL for 103 points and DET for 92.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How this is calculated
PuckCast's preseason forecast gives Dallas Stars a 62.2% chance to win on Mon, Jan 4. The matchup detail follows.
DET controlled play at 5v5 last season, 56.2% of the expected goals to 52.0%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season John Gibson (DET) saved -12.5 goals above expected to Jake Oettinger's -14.5, on save percentages of 0.901 and 0.899.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction, with confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market, publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Dallas Stars over Detroit Red Wings is where it starts, not where it ends.
No sportsbook has posted a price for this game yet. Prices usually appear roughly a week before puck drop.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
DET
John Gibson
57 games, 2025-26
DAL
Jake Oettinger
54 games, 2025-26
| DET | Metric | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 56.2% | xGF% (5v5) | 52.0% |
| — | Shot share | — |
| — | Goals for / game | — |
| — | Goals against / game | — |
| — | Power play | — |
| — | Penalty kill | — |
| — | Faceoffs | — |
Detroit Red Wings
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucas Raymond | L | 29 | 52 | 81 |
 Alex DeBrincat | R | 35 | 39 | 74 |
 Moritz Seider | D | 9 | 43 | 52 |
 Viktor Arvidsson | L | 19 | 21 | 39 |
Dallas Stars
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jason Robertson | L | 37 | 49 | 86 |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Red Wings | 92 | 38.1% |
| Dallas Stars | 103 | 70.4% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
Final scores from the graded ledger. A loss in overtime also reads L.
Last three seasons: DAL 4, DET 2
| Date | Game | Final | Our pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | DET @ DAL | DET 2, DAL 3 | DAL hit |
| 2025-12-23 | DAL @ DET | DAL 3, DET 4 | DAL missed |
| 2025-04-14 | DAL @ DET | DAL 4, DET 6 | DAL missed |
| 2025-01-19 | DET @ DAL | DET 1, DAL 4 | DAL hit |
| 2024-01-23 | DAL @ DET | DAL 5, DET 4 | DAL hit |
| 2023-12-11 | DET @ DAL | DET 3, DAL 6 | DAL hit |
 Mikko Rantanen | R | 30 | 55 | 85 |
|---|
 Wyatt Johnston | C | 42 | 42 | 84 |
|---|
 Roope Hintz | C | 22 | 32 | 54 |
|---|
DAL@
LAK
