PuckCast Edge
Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
2026-27 forecast · Sat, Jan 2, 10:00 PM ET
Mackenzie Blackwood · 0.904 SV%
The preseason ratings make Colorado Avalanche 53.4% to win on the road: barely a lean at all, worth 3.4 points over a coin flip, which grades C. Over a full season those same ratings project COL for 107 points and VGK for 96.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How this is calculated
PuckCast's preseason forecast gives Colorado Avalanche a 53.4% chance to win on Sat, Jan 2. The matchup detail follows.
VGK controlled play at 5v5 last season, 55.3% of the expected goals to 53.4%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Mackenzie Blackwood (COL) saved -6.0 goals above expected to Adin Hill's -23.2, on save percentages of 0.904 and 0.871.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction, with confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market, publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Colorado Avalanche over Vegas Golden Knights is where it starts, not where it ends.
No sportsbook has posted a price for this game yet. Prices usually appear roughly a week before puck drop.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
COL
Mackenzie Blackwood
39 games, 2025-26
VGK
Adin Hill
27 games, 2025-26
| COL | Metric | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 53.4% | xGF% (5v5) | 55.3% |
| — | Shot share | — |
| — | Goals for / game | — |
| — | Goals against / game | — |
| — | Power play | — |
| — | Penalty kill | — |
| — | Faceoffs | — |
Colorado Avalanche
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nathan MacKinnon | C | 38 | 70 | 108 |
 Cale Makar | D | 23 | 60 | 84 |
 Martin Necas | C | 29 | 51 | 80 |
 Nazem Kadri | C | 18 | 27 | 45 |
Vegas Golden Knights
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mitch Marner | R | 25 | 63 | 87 |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado Avalanche | 107 | 78.3% |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 96 | 58.1% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
Final scores from the graded ledger. A loss in overtime also reads L.
Last three seasons: VGK 4, COL 5
| Date | Game | Final | Our pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | VGK @ COL | VGK 3, COL 2 | COL missed |
| 2025-12-27 | COL @ VGK | COL 7, VGK 6 | COL hit |
| 2025-10-31 | COL @ VGK | COL 4, VGK 2 | COL hit |
| 2025-04-08 | VGK @ COL | VGK 2, COL 3 | COL hit |
| 2024-11-27 | VGK @ COL | VGK 1, COL 2 | COL hit |
| 2024-10-09 | COL @ VGK | COL 4, VGK 8 | VGK hit |
| 2024-04-14 | COL @ VGK | COL 3, VGK 4 | COL missed |
| 2024-01-10 | VGK @ COL | VGK 0, COL 3 | COL hit |
 Jack Eichel | C | 27 | 55 | 82 |
|---|
 Mark Stone | R | 17 | 34 | 51 |
|---|
 Shea Theodore | D | 8 | 34 | 42 |
|---|
SEA@
VGK
