PuckCast Edge
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2026-27 forecast · Wed, Jan 13, 9:00 PM ET
Karel Vejmelka · 0.897 SV%
The preseason ratings make Utah Mammoth 59.1% to win at home — a modest lean, worth 9.1 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project UTA for 99 points and DET for 92.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
UTA controlled play at 5v5 last season, 52.6% of the expected goals to 48.4%; UTA's power play ran at 19.1% against a DET kill at 77.1%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season John Gibson (DET) saved -12.5 goals above expected to Karel Vejmelka's -22.7, on save percentages of 0.901 and 0.897.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Utah Mammoth over Detroit Red Wings is where it starts, not where it ends.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
DET
John Gibson
57 games, 2025-26
UTA
Karel Vejmelka
64 games, 2025-26
| DET | Metric | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 48.4% | xGF% (5v5) | 52.6% |
| 50.4% | Shot share | 51.2% |
| 2.9 | Goals for / game | 3.3 |
| 3.1 | Goals against / game | 3.0 |
| 22.6% | Power play | 19.1% |
| 77.1% | Penalty kill | 78.3% |
| 51.0% | Faceoffs | 49.1% |
Detroit Red Wings
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L | 29 | 52 | 81 | |
| R | 35 | 39 | 74 | |
| C | 28 | 35 | 63 | |
| D | 9 | 43 | 52 |
Utah Mammoth
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 27 | 53 | 80 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-04 | DET @ UTA | UTA | DET 1–4 UTA | Correct |
| 2025-12-17 | UTA @ DET | DET | UTA 4–1 DET | Missed |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Red Wings | 92 | 38.1% |
| Utah Mammoth | 99 | 60.8% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| R | 33 | 33 | 66 |
| C | 29 | 33 | 61 |
| C | 22 | 37 | 59 |