PuckCast Edge
Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
2026-27 forecast · Tue, Jan 12, 7:00 PM ET
Adin Hill · 0.871 SV%
The preseason ratings make Washington Capitals 57.0% to win at home: a modest lean, worth 7.0 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project WSH for 98 points and VGK for 96.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How this is calculated
PuckCast's preseason forecast gives Washington Capitals a 57.0% chance to win on Tue, Jan 12. The matchup detail follows.
VGK controlled play at 5v5 last season, 55.3% of the expected goals to 51.9%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Logan Thompson (WSH) saved 2.8 goals above expected to Adin Hill's -23.2, on save percentages of 0.912 and 0.871.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction, with confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market, publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Washington Capitals over Vegas Golden Knights is where it starts, not where it ends.
No sportsbook has posted a price for this game yet. Prices usually appear roughly a week before puck drop.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
VGK
Adin Hill
27 games, 2025-26
WSH
Logan Thompson
58 games, 2025-26
| VGK | Metric | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 55.3% | xGF% (5v5) | 51.9% |
| — | Shot share | — |
| — | Goals for / game | — |
| — | Goals against / game | — |
| — | Power play | — |
| — | Penalty kill | — |
| — | Faceoffs | — |
Vegas Golden Knights
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mitch Marner | R | 25 | 63 | 87 |
 Jack Eichel | C | 27 | 55 | 82 |
 Mark Stone | R | 17 | 34 | 51 |
 Shea Theodore | D | 8 | 34 | 42 |
Washington Capitals
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Alex Ovechkin | L | 34 | 29 | 63 |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Vegas Golden Knights | 96 | 58.1% |
| Washington Capitals | 98 | 51.2% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
Final scores from the graded ledger. A loss in overtime also reads L.
Last three seasons: WSH 5, VGK 1
| Date | Game | Final | Our pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | WSH @ VGK | WSH 5, VGK 4 | VGK missed |
| 2026-02-27 | VGK @ WSH | VGK 2, WSH 3 | WSH hit |
| 2024-11-17 | WSH @ VGK | WSH 5, VGK 2 | VGK missed |
| 2024-10-15 | VGK @ WSH | VGK 2, WSH 4 | VGK missed |
| 2023-12-02 | WSH @ VGK | WSH 1, VGK 4 | VGK hit |
| 2023-11-14 | VGK @ WSH | VGK 0, WSH 3 | VGK missed |
 Dylan Strome | C | 21 | 39 | 60 |
|---|
 Alex Tuch | R | 26 | 30 | 57 |
|---|
 Jordan Kyrou | R | 25 | 32 | 56 |
|---|
WSH@
PIT
