Who is favoured, Chicago Blackhawks or Toronto Maple Leafs?

Toronto Maple Leafs, at 56.5% in PuckCast's preseason forecast. That is a rating-based forecast; the full model read, with goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of puck drop.

What is a preseason forecast?

A win probability from each team's regressed preseason rating and home ice, the same ratings behind the 2026-27 projected standings. Those ratings are calibrated at the season level, for standings and playoff odds; this single-game percentage is a plain rating formula and has not been graded on its own yet. It is deliberately unsure about any single game, and the confidence grade says how far it leans.

When does the real prediction publish?

Inside the seven-day window before the game. The model re-scores it on every refresh until puck drop, with the confirmed starting goalies, and this page shows that read instead of the forecast.

Chicago Blackhawks at Toronto Maple Leafs, Thu, Jan 14: prediction and odds forecast

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2026-27 forecast · Thu, Jan 14, 7:00 PM ET

Chicago BlackhawksCHI

83 proj. pts · 25.9% playoffs

Spencer Knight · 0.902 SV%

Bvs7:00 PM ET

Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works

The read

Preseason ratings · last season’s record

TOR controlled play at 5v5 last season, 45.9% of the expected goals to 43.7%; TOR's power play ran at 21.3% against a CHI kill at 83.6%.

In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Spencer Knight (CHI) saved -12.5 goals above expected to Sergei Bobrovsky's -41.5, on save percentages of 0.902 and 0.877.

None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Toronto Maple Leafs over Chicago Blackhawks is where it starts, not where it ends.

In goal

goalie board

No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.

CHI

Spencer Knight

SV%: 0.902
GSAx: -12.5
GAA: 2.82
Record: 19-25-11

55 games, 2025-26

TOR

Sergei Bobrovsky

SV%: 0.877
GSAx: -41.5
GAA: 3.07
Record: 27-23-1

52 games, 2025-26

CHI	Metric	TOR
43.7%	xGF% (5v5)	45.9%
45.1%	Shot share	44.8%
2.6	Goals for / game	3.1
3.3	Goals against / game	3.6
17.0%	Power play	21.3%
83.6%	Penalty kill	81.2%
46.0%	Faceoffs	54.2%

Who drives it

2026-27 projected points

Chicago Blackhawks

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Connor Bedard	C	31	52	83
Patrick Kane	R	18	36	54
Teuvo Teravainen	C	15	29	44
Frank Nazar	C	16	25	41

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Auston Matthews	C	40	39	79

Date	Game	Pick	Score	Result
2025-12-16	CHI @ TOR	TOR	CHI 2–3 TOR	Correct
2025-11-15	TOR @ CHI	TOR	TOR 2–3 CHI	Missed

Team	Proj. points	Playoff odds
Chicago Blackhawks	83	25.9%
Toronto Maple Leafs	85	22.9%

Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.

The read

In goal

Last season, side by side

Who drives it

Schedule around it

Last season, head to head

Season outlook