PuckCast Edge
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2026-27 forecast · Wed, Jan 27, 9:00 PM ET
Karel Vejmelka · 0.897 SV%
The preseason ratings make Utah Mammoth 50.5% to win at home — barely a lean at all, worth 0.5 points over a coin flip, which grades C. Over a full season those same ratings project UTA for 99 points and BUF for 104.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
UTA controlled play at 5v5 last season, 52.6% of the expected goals to 50.7%; UTA's power play ran at 19.1% against a BUF kill at 81.0%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (BUF) saved -1.3 goals above expected to Karel Vejmelka's -22.7, on save percentages of 0.910 and 0.897.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Utah Mammoth over Buffalo Sabres is where it starts, not where it ends.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
BUF
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
35 games, 2025-26
UTA
Karel Vejmelka
64 games, 2025-26
| BUF | Metric | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 50.7% | xGF% (5v5) | 52.6% |
| 49.7% | Shot share | 51.2% |
| 3.4 | Goals for / game | 3.3 |
| 2.9 | Goals against / game | 3.0 |
| 19.7% | Power play | 19.1% |
| 81.0% | Penalty kill | 78.3% |
| 45.9% | Faceoffs | 49.1% |
Buffalo Sabres
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 35 | 33 | 68 | |
| D | 18 | 50 | 68 | |
| C | 14 | 30 | 44 | |
| R | 17 | 26 | 43 |
Utah Mammoth
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 27 | 53 | 80 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-12 | BUF @ UTA | UTA | BUF 2–5 UTA | Correct |
| 2025-11-04 | UTA @ BUF | BUF | UTA 2–1 BUF | Missed |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Sabres | 104 | 67.2% |
| Utah Mammoth | 99 | 60.8% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| R | 33 | 33 | 66 |
| C | 29 | 33 | 61 |
| C | 22 | 37 | 59 |