Who is favoured, New York Rangers or Washington Capitals?

Washington Capitals, at 59.4% in PuckCast's preseason forecast. That is a rating-based forecast; the full model read, with goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of puck drop.

What is a preseason forecast?

A win probability from each team's regressed preseason rating and home ice, the same ratings behind the 2026-27 projected standings. Those ratings are calibrated at the season level, for standings and playoff odds; this single-game percentage is a plain rating formula and has not been graded on its own yet. It is deliberately unsure about any single game, and the confidence grade says how far it leans.

When does the real prediction publish?

Inside the seven-day window before the game. The model re-scores it on every refresh until puck drop, with the confirmed starting goalies, and this page shows that read instead of the forecast.

New York Rangers at Washington Capitals, Tue, Feb 23: prediction and odds forecast

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2026-27 forecast · Tue, Feb 23, 7:00 PM ET

New York RangersNYR

91 proj. pts · 37.5% playoffs

Igor Shesterkin · 0.912 SV%

Bvs7:00 PM ET

Washington CapitalsWSH

A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works

The read

Preseason ratings · last season’s record

WSH controlled play at 5v5 last season, 49.9% of the expected goals to 48.0%; WSH's power play ran at 17.8% against a NYR kill at 79.9%.

In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Logan Thompson (WSH) saved 2.8 goals above expected to Igor Shesterkin's 2.2, on save percentages of 0.912 and 0.912.

None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Washington Capitals over New York Rangers is where it starts, not where it ends.

In goal

goalie board

No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.

NYR

Igor Shesterkin

SV%: 0.912
GSAx: +2.2
GAA: 2.50
Record: 25-19-6

51 games, 2025-26

WSH

Logan Thompson

SV%: 0.912
GSAx: +2.8
GAA: 2.44
Record: 31-21-6

58 games, 2025-26

NYR	Metric	WSH
48.0%	xGF% (5v5)	49.9%
46.6%	Shot share	49.9%
2.9	Goals for / game	3.2
3.0	Goals against / game	2.9
24.6%	Power play	17.8%
79.9%	Penalty kill	80.1%
54.5%	Faceoffs	49.3%

Who drives it

2026-27 projected points

New York Rangers

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Adam Fox	D	11	51	61
Mika Zibanejad	C	24	37	61
J.T. Miller	C	19	37	56
Pavel Dorofeyev	R	32	22	54

Washington Capitals

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Alex Ovechkin	L	34	29	63

Last season, head to head

ledger

Date	Game	Pick	Score	Result
2026-04-05	WSH @ NYR	WSH	WSH 1–8 NYR	Missed
2025-12-31	NYR @ WSH	WSH	NYR 3–6 WSH	Correct
2025-12-23	NYR @ WSH	WSH	NYR 7–3 WSH	Missed
2025-10-12	WSH @ NYR	WSH	WSH 1–0 NYR	Correct

Season outlook

projected standings

Team	Proj. points	Playoff odds
New York Rangers	91	37.5%
Washington Capitals	98	51.2%