Who is favoured, Detroit Red Wings or Toronto Maple Leafs?

Detroit Red Wings, at 50.2% in PuckCast's preseason forecast. That is a rating-based forecast; the full model read, with goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of puck drop.

What is a preseason forecast?

A win probability from each team's regressed preseason rating and home ice, the same ratings behind the 2026-27 projected standings. Those ratings are calibrated at the season level, for standings and playoff odds; this single-game percentage is a plain rating formula and has not been graded on its own yet. It is deliberately unsure about any single game, and the confidence grade says how far it leans.

When does the real prediction publish?

Inside the seven-day window before the game. The model re-scores it on every refresh until puck drop, with the confirmed starting goalies, and this page shows that read instead of the forecast.

Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs, Mon, Mar 1: prediction and odds forecast

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2026-27 forecast · Mon, Mar 1, 7:00 PM ET

Detroit Red WingsDET

92 proj. pts · 38.1% playoffs

John Gibson · 0.901 SV%

Cvs7:00 PM ET

Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works

The read

Preseason ratings · last season’s record

DET controlled play at 5v5 last season, 48.4% of the expected goals to 45.9%; DET's power play ran at 22.6% against a TOR kill at 81.2%.

In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season John Gibson (DET) saved -12.5 goals above expected to Sergei Bobrovsky's -41.5, on save percentages of 0.901 and 0.877.

None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Detroit Red Wings over Toronto Maple Leafs is where it starts, not where it ends.

In goal

goalie board

No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.

DET

John Gibson

SV%: 0.901
GSAx: -12.5
GAA: 2.72
Record: 29-22-4

57 games, 2025-26

TOR

Sergei Bobrovsky

SV%: 0.877
GSAx: -41.5
GAA: 3.07
Record: 27-23-1

52 games, 2025-26

DET	Metric	TOR
48.4%	xGF% (5v5)	45.9%
50.4%	Shot share	44.8%
2.9	Goals for / game	3.1
3.1	Goals against / game	3.6
22.6%	Power play	21.3%
77.1%	Penalty kill	81.2%
51.0%	Faceoffs	54.2%

Who drives it

2026-27 projected points

Detroit Red Wings

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Lucas Raymond	L	29	52	81
Alex DeBrincat	R	35	39	74
Dylan Larkin	C	28	35	63
Moritz Seider	D	9	43	52

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Auston Matthews	C	40	39	79

Last season, head to head

ledger

Date	Game	Pick	Score	Result
2026-01-21	DET @ TOR	DET	DET 2–1 TOR	Correct
2025-12-28	TOR @ DET	DET	TOR 2–3 DET	Correct
2025-10-13	DET @ TOR	DET	DET 3–2 TOR	Correct
2025-10-11	TOR @ DET	DET	TOR 3–6 DET	Correct

Season outlook

projected standings

Team	Proj. points	Playoff odds
Detroit Red Wings	92	38.1%
Toronto Maple Leafs	85	22.9%