Who is favoured, Minnesota Wild or Dallas Stars?

Dallas Stars, at 56.8% in PuckCast's preseason forecast. That is a rating-based forecast; the full model read, with goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of puck drop.

What is a preseason forecast?

A win probability from each team's regressed preseason rating and home ice, the same ratings behind the 2026-27 projected standings. Those ratings are calibrated at the season level, for standings and playoff odds; this single-game percentage is a plain rating formula and has not been graded on its own yet. It is deliberately unsure about any single game, and the confidence grade says how far it leans.

When does the real prediction publish?

Inside the seven-day window before the game. The model re-scores it on every refresh until puck drop, with the confirmed starting goalies, and this page shows that read instead of the forecast.

Minnesota Wild at Dallas Stars, Wed, Mar 3: prediction and odds forecast

PuckCast Edge

Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.

Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.

Get the Edge See the slate

2026-27 forecast · Wed, Mar 3, 8:00 PM ET

Minnesota WildMIN

101 proj. pts · 65.5% playoffs

Filip Gustavsson · 0.904 SV%

Bvs8:00 PM ET

Dallas StarsDAL

103 proj. pts · 70.4% playoffs

A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works

The read

Preseason ratings · last season’s record

at 5v5 last season the two were level on expected goals (51.2% to 51.2%); DAL's power play ran at 29.7% against a MIN kill at 76.9%.

In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Filip Gustavsson (MIN) saved -9.1 goals above expected to Jake Oettinger's -14.5, on save percentages of 0.904 and 0.899.

None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Dallas Stars over Minnesota Wild is where it starts, not where it ends.

In goal

goalie board

No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.

MIN

Filip Gustavsson

SV%: 0.904
GSAx: -9.1
GAA: 2.69
Record: 28-15-6

50 games, 2025-26

DAL

Jake Oettinger

SV%: 0.899
GSAx: -14.5
GAA: 2.59
Record: 35-12-6

54 games, 2025-26

MIN	Metric	DAL
51.2%	xGF% (5v5)	51.2%
49.5%	Shot share	49.3%
3.3	Goals for / game	3.3
3.0	Goals against / game	2.8
24.3%	Power play	29.7%
76.9%	Penalty kill	80.7%
47.0%	Faceoffs	51.4%

Who drives it

2026-27 projected points

Minnesota Wild

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Matt Boldy	L	35	45	80
Kirill Kaprizov	L	38	41	79
Quinn Hughes	D	12	67	78
Brock Faber	D	13	35	47

Dallas Stars

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Jason Robertson	L	37	49	86

Last season, head to head

ledger

Date	Game	Pick	Score	Result
2026-04-09	MIN @ DAL	DAL	MIN 4–5 DAL	Correct
2026-03-21	DAL @ MIN	DAL	DAL 1–2 MIN	Missed
2025-12-11	DAL @ MIN	DAL	DAL 2–5 MIN	Missed
2025-10-14	MIN @ DAL	DAL	MIN 2–5 DAL	Correct

Season outlook

projected standings

Team	Proj. points	Playoff odds
Minnesota Wild	101	65.5%
Dallas Stars	103	70.4%