Who is favoured, Dallas Stars or Toronto Maple Leafs?

Dallas Stars, at 57.6% in PuckCast's preseason forecast. That is a rating-based forecast; the full model read, with goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of puck drop.

What is a preseason forecast?

A win probability from each team's regressed preseason rating and home ice, the same ratings behind the 2026-27 projected standings. Those ratings are calibrated at the season level, for standings and playoff odds; this single-game percentage is a plain rating formula and has not been graded on its own yet. It is deliberately unsure about any single game, and the confidence grade says how far it leans.

When does the real prediction publish?

Inside the seven-day window before the game. The model re-scores it on every refresh until puck drop, with the confirmed starting goalies, and this page shows that read instead of the forecast.

Dallas Stars at Toronto Maple Leafs, Mon, Mar 8: prediction and odds forecast

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2026-27 forecast · Mon, Mar 8, 7:30 PM ET

Dallas StarsDAL

103 proj. pts · 70.4% playoffs

Jake Oettinger · 0.899 SV%

Bvs7:30 PM ET

Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works

The read

Preseason ratings · last season’s record

DAL controlled play at 5v5 last season, 51.2% of the expected goals to 45.9%; DAL's power play ran at 29.7% against a TOR kill at 81.2%.

In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Jake Oettinger (DAL) saved -14.5 goals above expected to Sergei Bobrovsky's -41.5, on save percentages of 0.899 and 0.877.

None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Dallas Stars over Toronto Maple Leafs is where it starts, not where it ends.