Who is favoured, New York Rangers or Colorado Avalanche?

Colorado Avalanche, at 65.4% in PuckCast's preseason forecast. That is a rating-based forecast; the full model read, with goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of puck drop.

What is a preseason forecast?

A win probability from each team's regressed preseason rating and home ice, the same ratings behind the 2026-27 projected standings. Those ratings are calibrated at the season level, for standings and playoff odds; this single-game percentage is a plain rating formula and has not been graded on its own yet. It is deliberately unsure about any single game, and the confidence grade says how far it leans.

When does the real prediction publish?

Inside the seven-day window before the game. The model re-scores it on every refresh until puck drop, with the confirmed starting goalies, and this page shows that read instead of the forecast.

New York Rangers at Colorado Avalanche, Thu, Mar 11: prediction and odds forecast

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2026-27 forecast · Thu, Mar 11, 9:00 PM ET

New York RangersNYR

91 proj. pts · 37.5% playoffs

Igor Shesterkin · 0.912 SV%

Bvs9:00 PM ET

Colorado AvalancheCOL

A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works

The read

Preseason ratings · last season’s record

COL controlled play at 5v5 last season, 57.6% of the expected goals to 48.0%; COL's power play ran at 17.8% against a NYR kill at 79.9%.

In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Igor Shesterkin (NYR) saved 2.2 goals above expected to Mackenzie Blackwood's -6.0, on save percentages of 0.912 and 0.904.

None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Colorado Avalanche over New York Rangers is where it starts, not where it ends.

In goal

goalie board

No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.

NYR

Igor Shesterkin

SV%: 0.912
GSAx: +2.2
GAA: 2.50
Record: 25-19-6

51 games, 2025-26

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood

SV%: 0.904
GSAx: -6.0
GAA: 2.50
Record: 23-10-2

39 games, 2025-26

NYR	Metric	COL
48.0%	xGF% (5v5)	57.6%
46.6%	Shot share	56.3%
2.9	Goals for / game	3.7
3.0	Goals against / game	2.4
24.6%	Power play	17.8%
79.9%	Penalty kill	84.0%
54.5%	Faceoffs	51.2%

Who drives it

2026-27 projected points

New York Rangers

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Adam Fox	D	11	51	61
Mika Zibanejad	C	24	37	61
J.T. Miller	C	19	37	56
Pavel Dorofeyev	R	32	22	54

Colorado Avalanche

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Nathan MacKinnon	C	38	70	108

Date	Game	Pick	Score	Result
2025-12-06	COL @ NYR	COL	COL 3–2 NYR	Correct
2025-11-20	NYR @ COL	COL	NYR 3–6 COL	Correct

Team	Proj. points	Playoff odds
New York Rangers	91	37.5%
Colorado Avalanche	107	78.3%

Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.

The read

In goal

Last season, side by side

Who drives it

Schedule around it

Last season, head to head

Season outlook