Who is favoured, Tampa Bay Lightning or Buffalo Sabres?

Buffalo Sabres, at 55.5% in PuckCast's preseason forecast. That is a rating-based forecast; the full model read, with goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of puck drop.

What is a preseason forecast?

A win probability from each team's regressed preseason rating and home ice, the same ratings behind the 2026-27 projected standings. Those ratings are calibrated at the season level, for standings and playoff odds; this single-game percentage is a plain rating formula and has not been graded on its own yet. It is deliberately unsure about any single game, and the confidence grade says how far it leans.

When does the real prediction publish?

Inside the seven-day window before the game. The model re-scores it on every refresh until puck drop, with the confirmed starting goalies, and this page shows that read instead of the forecast.

Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres, Mon, Apr 5: prediction and odds forecast

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2026-27 forecast · Mon, Apr 5, 7:00 PM ET

Tampa Bay LightningTBL

104 proj. pts · 65.7% playoffs

Andrei Vasilevskiy · 0.912 SV%

Bvs7:00 PM ET

Buffalo SabresBUF

A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works

The read

Preseason ratings · last season’s record

TBL controlled play at 5v5 last season, 54.1% of the expected goals to 50.7%; BUF's power play ran at 19.7% against a TBL kill at 82.4%.

In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Andrei Vasilevskiy (TBL) saved 1.5 goals above expected to Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen's -1.3, on save percentages of 0.912 and 0.910.

None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Buffalo Sabres over Tampa Bay Lightning is where it starts, not where it ends.

In goal

goalie board

No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy

SV%: 0.912
GSAx: +1.5
GAA: 2.31
Record: 39-15-4

58 games, 2025-26

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

SV%: 0.910
GSAx: -1.3
GAA: 2.52
Record: 22-9-3

35 games, 2025-26

TBL	Metric	BUF
54.1%	xGF% (5v5)	50.7%
51.6%	Shot share	49.7%
3.4	Goals for / game	3.4
2.8	Goals against / game	2.9
20.4%	Power play	19.7%
82.4%	Penalty kill	81.0%
47.1%	Faceoffs	45.9%

Who drives it

2026-27 projected points

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Nikita Kucherov	R	33	67	100
Brandon Hagel	L	31	43	74
Jake Guentzel	C	32	40	72
Brayden Point	C	29	36	65

Buffalo Sabres

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Tage Thompson	C	35	33	68

Last season, head to head

ledger

Date	Game	Pick	Score	Result
2026-04-06	TBL @ BUF	TBL	TBL 2–4 BUF	Missed
2026-03-08	TBL @ BUF	TBL	TBL 7–8 BUF	Missed
2026-02-28	BUF @ TBL	TBL	BUF 6–2 TBL	Missed
2026-02-03	BUF @ TBL	TBL	BUF 3–4 TBL	Correct

Season outlook

projected standings

Team	Proj. points	Playoff odds
Tampa Bay Lightning	104	65.7%
Buffalo Sabres	104	67.2%