PuckCast Edge
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Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
Defenseman•#74MIXEDPPI 96John Carlson is a 36-year-old defenseman for the Tampa Bay Lightning. Selected 27th overall by WSH in the 2008 NHL Draft. Born in Natick, USA. A veteran presence at 36 years old.
On the blue line this season, John has recorded 5 goals and 3 assists for 8 points across 13 games. He averages 0.62 points per game on 19:12 of ice time.
2026-27 · Regular season
2026-27 projection
Projected September 28, 2026 — 80% range on points. All 2026-27 player projections
80% range: 26–57 pts
MIXED — 63rd percentile at D, 55% hit rate (71 GP, 2025-26)
2026-27 · Regular season
Full statistical breakdown for the 2026-27 regular season.
League percentile
Vs. all NHL skaters, 10+ games played. 99 = best, 1 = lowest.
2026-27 pace
Where John's current rate finishes the 2026-27 season.
End of season forecast, current pace
68
games remaining
Goals
31
Current: 5
Assists
19
Current: 3
Points
50
Current: 8
Moderate production expected. Likely to finish between 39-61 points with consistent deployment.
0.0%
Art Ross
Most Points
0.0%
Rocket
Most Goals
0.0%
Playmaker
Most Assists
Projections based on current pace extrapolated to the full season with variance modeling.
5v5
What happened while John was on the ice at 5v5, and who he was sent out against. 2026-27.
5v5 only (situationCode 1551), unblocked attempts, shift-chart attribution. 13 games, 300 unblocked attempts on the ice.
Quality of competition
55.6 vs 57.3 lg
25th percentile
Quality of teammates
79.3 vs 56.8 lg
100th percentile
Deployment
neutral
by competition faced
Competition and teammate quality are the average on-ice strength of the players he shared the ice with at 5v5, on the same 0–100 scale as the league averages beside them.
Shot Selection
Where John takes his shots, and how each zone converts.
Unblocked attempts
47
Goals vs expected
5 vs 2.8 xG
5v5 scoring-chance share
14%
With-or-without-you
Who John plays with at 5v5, and how the shot-quality share moves when they are apart — a with-or-without-you read.
| Teammate | Together | xGF% with | xGF% apart | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. MoserD | 138 min | 57.9 | — | — |
| Nikita KucherovR | 116 min | 61.6 | — | — |
5v5, real shift-overlap TOI; Corsi incl blocked, xG unblocked. “Apart” is that teammate’s share in the minutes he played without John, so the swing is a comparison of the same player in two situations rather than against the league. Pairs need 100 minutes together to appear at all, and a swing still carries whoever else was on the ice — it is a strong hint, not an isolated effect.
2026-27
PuckCast Player Intelligence, and the skill radar and on-ice impact behind it.
Skill radar & on-ice impact vs. NHL defensemen
79
Offense
65
Defense
Percentile ranks across 6 skill dimensions. Larger shape = more complete player.
Scouting Take
Displays elite offensive production, a top on-ice shot share, elite finishing ability, power play scoring.
On-ice impact mirrored side by side. Equal bars = balanced. Asymmetry = one-dimensional.
The Gap
14-pt spreadLeans offensive. The 14-point spread between offensive (79th) and defensive (65th) percentiles is typical of a scoring-first defenseman.
Percentile ranks across 6 skill dimensions.
Scouting Take
Displays elite offensive production, a top on-ice shot share, elite finishing ability, power play scoring.
On-ice impact mirrored side by side.
The Gap
14-pt spreadLeans offensive. The 14-point spread between offensive (79th) and defensive (65th) percentiles is typical of a scoring-first defenseman.
Career
Season-by-season NHL regular season statistics throughout John Carlson's career.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | S | S% | PIM | PPG | TOI/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26-272026-27 | TBL | 13 | 5 | 3 | 8 | +1 | 36 | 13.9% | |||
| 25-262025-26 | ANA | 16 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -2 | 38 | 10.5% | |||
| 25-262025-26 | WSH | 55 | 10 | 36 | 46 | +11 | 115 | 8.7% |
Form
John's last five games played — playoff games included if his team advanced, since the NHL does not separate them here.
| Date | Opp | G | A | P | +/- | S | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @ NSH | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 5 | 19:11 |
| Oct 29 | vs WPG | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 3 | 13:12 |
| Oct 24 | @ UTA | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:41 |
| Oct 23 | @ COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 18:15 |
| Oct 20 | @ VGK | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 4 | 17:46 |
Similar defensemans
Same position, comparable 2026-27 projected rate and 2026-27 shot/power-play rate. Compare John to another player
Roster
Top teammates by points on the Tampa Bay Lightning this season.
Bars are share of unblocked attempts, where he chooses to shoot, over a full season, which is the stable part. xG/100 compares his shot quality from a zone against the league rate for a defenceman. GAx is goals above expected there, a single season and noisy, zones marked * are flagged small-sample by the generator and are shown muted rather than hidden.
| 24-252024-25 | WSH | 79 | 5 | 46 | 51 | +17 | 167 | 3.0% |
| 23-242023-24 | WSH | 82 | 10 | 42 | 52 | -7 | 176 | 5.7% |
| 22-232022-23 | WSH | 40 | 9 | 20 | 29 | -7 | 124 | 7.3% |
| 21-222021-22 | WSH | 78 | 17 | 54 | 71 | +13 | 195 | 8.7% |
| 20-212020-21 | WSH | 52 | 10 | 34 | 44 | -5 | 128 | 7.8% |
| 19-202019-20 | WSH | 69 | 15 | 60 | 75 | +12 | 189 | 7.9% |
| 18-192018-19 | WSH | 80 | 13 | 57 | 70 | +21 | 185 | 7.0% |
| 17-182017-18 | WSH | 82 | 15 | 53 | 68 | 0 | 237 | 6.3% |
| 16-172016-17 | WSH | 72 | 9 | 28 | 37 | +7 | 180 | 5.0% |
| 15-162015-16 | WSH | 56 | 8 | 31 | 39 | +16 | 124 | 6.5% |
| 14-152014-15 | WSH | 82 | 12 | 43 | 55 | +11 | 193 | 6.2% |
| 13-142013-14 | WSH | 82 | 10 | 27 | 37 | -3 | 208 | 4.8% |
| 12-132012-13 | WSH | 48 | 6 | 16 | 22 | +11 | 97 | 6.2% |
| 11-122011-12 | WSH | 82 | 9 | 23 | 32 | -15 | 152 | 5.9% |
| 10-112010-11 | WSH | 82 | 7 | 30 | 37 | +21 | 144 | 4.9% |
| 09-102009-10 | WSH | 22 | 1 | 5 | 6 | +11 | 21 | 4.8% |
| Career | — | 1172 | 175 | 618 | 793 | +113 | 2709 | 6.5% |
Victor Hedman
D · 5 pts
