Who Wins the Pacific Division in 2026-27?
Edmonton projects for a division-best 97.1 points and a 20.4% chance to win the Pacific, the lowest points total to lead any division in this preview. Full projected standings for all eight teams.
The model projects the Edmonton Oilers to finish with 97.1 points and gives them a 20.4% chance to win the Pacific. That's the lowest projected points total to lead any of the four divisions in this preview, a sign of how flat the Pacific is at the top.
These are preseason projections, built before puck drop. They regress last season's results toward the mean and will move once real games are played. Here is the full projected order.
| Rank | Team | Proj. Points | Playoff % | Division Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edmonton Oilers | 97.1 | 60.5% | 20.4% |
| 2 | Vegas Golden Knights | 96.2 | 58.1% | 18.9% |
| 3 | Anaheim Ducks | 94.1 | 53.3% | 15.7% |
| 4 | San Jose Sharks | 90.7 | 45.4% | 11.4% |
| 5 | Los Angeles Kings | 90.4 | 44.3% | 11.0% |
| 6 | Calgary Flames | 89.1 | 41.6% | 10.0% |
| 7 | Seattle Kraken | 88.0 | 38.6% | 9.0% |
| 8 | Vancouver Canucks | 79.6 | 21.8% | 3.7% |
Top to bottom, the Pacific covers a 17.5-point spread, from Edmonton's 97.1 down to Vancouver's 79.6. Take Vancouver out and the other seven teams are packed inside 9.1 points of each other, with playoff odds ranging from Edmonton's 60.5% down to Seattle's 38.6%. This is a division where seven teams can plausibly point to a real playoff case, and only one team looks out of it entirely.
Team by team, in projected order
1. Edmonton Oilers: 97.1 pts, 20.4% to win the division
Connor McDavid projects for a league-leading 127 points, and Tristan Jarry is projected as the starter with 23 wins at a .895 save percentage, the softest projected goaltending line among the Pacific's top four. Edmonton's offseason cost them Jack Roslovic, now projected in Toronto carrying a 32-point projection.
2. Vegas Golden Knights: 96.2 pts, 18.9% to win the division
Mitch Marner projects for 87 points, with Adin Hill projected for 24 wins at a .897 save percentage. Vegas's notable departure is Pavel Dorofeyev, now projected in New York carrying a 54-point projection.
3. Anaheim Ducks: 94.1 pts, 15.7% to win the division
Leo Carlsson leads Anaheim's projection at 60 points, with Lukas Dostal projected for 28 wins at a .898 save percentage. Anaheim's headline offseason loss is Mason McTavish, now projected in St. Louis at 49 points.
4. San Jose Sharks: 90.7 pts, 11.4% to win the division
Macklin Celebrini projects for 99 points, the Pacific's second-highest individual total behind McDavid, with Alex Nedeljkovic projected for 19 wins at a .898 save percentage. San Jose's offseason cost them William Eklund, now projected in Ottawa carrying a 57-point projection.
5. Los Angeles Kings: 90.4 pts, 11.0% to win the division
Artemi Panarin projects for 72 points, and Darcy Kuemper is projected for 25 wins at a .898 save percentage. Los Angeles added Mats Zuccarello from Minnesota, a 49-point projection.
6. Calgary Flames: 89.1 pts, 10.0% to win the division
Jonathan Huberdeau leads a thin projected offense at 44 points, and Dustin Wolf is projected for 26 wins at a .901 save percentage, one of the better projected goaltending lines in the division. Calgary's offseason cost them Blake Coleman, now projected in Minnesota carrying a 26-point projection.
7. Seattle Kraken: 88.0 pts, 9.0% to win the division
Matty Beniers projects for 51 points, with Joey Daccord projected for 28 wins at a .903 save percentage. Seattle added Mackie Samoskevich from Florida, a 33-point projection.
8. Vancouver Canucks: 79.6 pts, 3.7% to win the division
Elias Pettersson projects for 65 points, and Kevin Lankinen is projected for 19 wins at a .892 save percentage, the softest projected goaltending line in the division. Vancouver added Brendan Gallagher from Montréal, a 20-point projection, but the model has the Canucks well off the pace in the Pacific.
FAQ
Who wins the Pacific Division in 2026-27? Edmonton, narrowly: a 20.4% chance to win the division over Vegas at 18.9%, the closest top-of-division gap of the four previews, on a projected 97.1 points.
Will the Canucks make the playoffs in 2026-27? No, by this projection: Vancouver's playoff odds sit at 21.8%, the lowest in the Pacific, on a projected 79.6 points, the lowest total of any team covered in this series.
Will the Kraken make the playoffs in 2026-27? It leans no: Seattle projects for a 38.6% playoff chance on 88.0 points, seventh in the division.
How many points do the Golden Knights project for in 2026-27? 96.2 points, with a 58.1% playoff chance and an 18.9% chance to win the division, second in the Pacific behind Edmonton on the strength of Mitch Marner's 87-point projection.
How does the model project the Pacific Division? It projects every team's points, playoff odds and division-win odds from a full-season simulation, then names each team's top projected scorer, its projected starting goalie and one roster change (a player who arrived or departed) drawn straight from the current roster file. Nothing here is a live in-season read; check back once games are played and the projections start updating.
These are preseason projections: last season's results regressed toward the mean, frozen before a single 2026-27 game has been played. See the 2026-27 season hub for every division and the full Pacific Division page for the live version of this table. Once games are played, check the live NHL standings or the results-based power rankings to see how the Pacific is actually shaking out.