Who Wins the Atlantic Division in 2026-27?
The model projects Buffalo for a division-best 104.2 points and a 20.9% chance to win the Atlantic, edging Tampa Bay. Full projected standings for all eight teams.
The model projects the Buffalo Sabres to finish with a division-best 104.2 points and gives them a 20.9% chance to win the Atlantic, the best odds of any team in the division but not a heavy favorite in a group where four teams project within six points of each other.
These are preseason projections, built before puck drop. They regress last season's results toward the mean and will move once real games are played. Here is the full projected order.
| Rank | Team | Proj. Points | Playoff % | Division Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo Sabres | 104.2 | 67.2% | 20.9% |
| 2 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 103.5 | 65.7% | 19.7% |
| 3 | Montréal Canadiens | 101.5 | 61.2% | 16.4% |
| 4 | Ottawa Senators | 100.4 | 58.0% | 14.9% |
| 5 | Boston Bruins | 98.6 | 54.2% | 12.1% |
| 6 | Florida Panthers | 91.9 | 38.1% | 6.5% |
| 7 | Detroit Red Wings | 91.8 | 38.1% | 6.5% |
| 8 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 84.5 | 22.9% | 2.9% |
Top to bottom, the Atlantic covers a 19.7-point spread, from Buffalo's 104.2 down to Toronto's 84.5. The top five teams are bunched inside six points of each other, which is why none of them clears 21% to win the division outright; Florida and Detroit then drop sharply, projected for the exact same 91.9-versus-91.8 points and 38.1% playoff odds.
Team by team, in projected order
1. Buffalo Sabres: 104.2 pts, 20.9% to win the division
Tage Thompson leads the projected offense at 68 points (35 goals, 33 assists), and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen projects as the starter with 25 wins and a .903 save percentage. The offseason's biggest move here was a departure: Alex Tuch is now projected in Washington, where his 57-point projection would have been Buffalo's second-best forward line.
2. Tampa Bay Lightning: 103.5 pts, 19.7% to win the division
Nikita Kucherov projects for a league-leading 100 points (33 goals, 67 assists), and Andrei Vasilevskiy is projected for 31 wins at a .911 save percentage, the best goaltending line in the division. Tampa Bay added John Carlson from Anaheim, a 41-point projection on the back end.
3. Montréal Canadiens: 101.5 pts, 16.4% to win the division
Nick Suzuki projects for 90 points as Montréal's top center, backed by Samuel Montembeault at 21 projected wins and a .896 save percentage. The roster's notable departure is Brendan Gallagher, now projected in Vancouver at 20 points.
4. Ottawa Senators: 100.4 pts, 14.9% to win the division
Tim Stützle leads Ottawa's projection at 90 points, with Linus Ullmark projected for 25 wins at a .901 save percentage. The Senators' offseason headline is a departure, not an addition: captain Brady Tkachuk is now projected in Florida, taking a 67-point projection with him.
5. Boston Bruins: 98.6 pts, 12.1% to win the division
David Pastrnak projects for 92 points, and Jeremy Swayman leads all Atlantic goalies with a projected 34 wins. Boston added scoring depth in John-Jason Peterka, who arrives from Utah carrying a 53-point projection.
6. Florida Panthers: 91.9 pts, 6.5% to win the division
Florida's top projected scorer is now the newly arrived Brady Tkachuk at 67 points, with Jacob Markstrom projected for 27 wins at a .895 save percentage, the softest projected goaltending line among the Atlantic's contenders. That save percentage is the whole story behind the Panthers sitting sixth: adding a 67-point winger did not fix the crease.
7. Detroit Red Wings: 91.8 pts, 6.5% to win the division
Lucas Raymond projects for 81 points, and John Gibson is projected for 29 wins at a .900 save percentage. Detroit's offseason cost them a name: Patrick Kane is now projected in Chicago, carrying a 54-point projection back to the city where he became a star.
8. Toronto Maple Leafs: 84.5 pts, 2.9% to win the division
Auston Matthews still projects for a division-leading 40 goals on his way to 79 points, but Sergei Bobrovsky is projected for the division's worst goaltending line among regular starters, 24 wins at a .897 save percentage and a 3.26 GAA. Toronto added depth defenseman Darren Raddysh from Tampa Bay, a 47-point projection, but the model has the Leafs closer to missing the playoffs than winning the division.
FAQ
Who wins the Atlantic Division in 2026-27? The model's pick is Buffalo, at a 20.9% chance to win the division, ahead of Tampa Bay at 19.7%. Both project within a point of each other on the standings, so this is the tightest division-winner projection of the four.
Will the Sabres make the playoffs in 2026-27? Yes, by the numbers: Buffalo projects for a 67.2% chance to make the playoffs, the best odds in the division, on a projected 104.2 points.
Will the Maple Leafs make the playoffs in 2026-27? It's unlikely by this projection: Toronto's playoff odds sit at 22.9%, the lowest in the Atlantic, on a projected 84.5 points.
Are the Panthers projected to contend in the Atlantic in 2026-27? Not for the division title. Florida projects for 91.9 points and a 38.1% playoff chance, sixth in the division, with the group's weakest projected starting-goalie save percentage (.895) doing most of the damage.
These are preseason projections: last season's results regressed toward the mean, frozen before a single 2026-27 game has been played. See the 2026-27 season hub for every division and the full Atlantic Division page for the live version of this table. Once games are played, check the live NHL standings or the results-based power rankings to see how the Atlantic is actually shaking out.