Who Wins the Central Division in 2026-27?
Colorado projects for a league-best 107.1 points and a 27.3% chance to win the Central, the strongest division-winner projection anywhere in the league. Full projected standings for all eight teams.
The model projects the Colorado Avalanche to finish with 107.1 points, the best projected total in the entire NHL, and gives them a 27.3% chance to win the Central, the single highest division-win projection across all four divisions in this preview.
These are preseason projections, built before puck drop. They regress last season's results toward the mean and will move once real games are played. Here is the full projected order.
| Rank | Team | Proj. Points | Playoff % | Division Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colorado Avalanche | 107.1 | 78.3% | 27.3% |
| 2 | Dallas Stars | 103.2 | 70.4% | 19.7% |
| 3 | Minnesota Wild | 100.7 | 65.5% | 15.5% |
| 4 | Utah Mammoth | 98.8 | 60.8% | 13.7% |
| 5 | St. Louis Blues | 94.2 | 50.0% | 8.4% |
| 6 | Nashville Predators | 93.3 | 47.6% | 7.7% |
| 7 | Winnipeg Jets | 89.1 | 38.0% | 5.1% |
| 8 | Chicago Blackhawks | 83.4 | 25.9% | 2.5% |
Top to bottom, the Central covers a 23.7-point spread, from Colorado's 107.1 down to Chicago's 83.4. That's the widest range of the four divisions in this preview, and the top four teams (Colorado, Dallas, Minnesota, Utah) are all projected above a 60% playoff chance while the bottom four are all below 51%. There isn't much of a genuine bubble here; the gap between the contenders and the rest is real.
Team by team, in projected order
1. Colorado Avalanche: 107.1 pts, 27.3% to win the division
Nathan MacKinnon projects for a league-leading 108 points, and Mackenzie Blackwood is projected for 26 wins at a .905 save percentage. Colorado's offseason cost them a name: Valeri Nichushkin is now projected in Columbus, taking a 35-point projection with him.
2. Dallas Stars: 103.2 pts, 19.7% to win the division
Jason Robertson projects for 86 points, with Jake Oettinger projected for 30 wins at a .904 save percentage. Dallas's notable departure is Mavrik Bourque, now projected in Nashville at 35 points.
3. Minnesota Wild: 100.7 pts, 15.5% to win the division
Matt Boldy leads Minnesota's projection at 80 points, just ahead of Kirill Kaprizov at 79, and Filip Gustavsson is projected for 26 wins at a .904 save percentage. Minnesota's biggest offseason loss is Mats Zuccarello, now projected in Los Angeles carrying a 49-point projection.
4. Utah Mammoth: 98.8 pts, 13.7% to win the division
Clayton Keller projects for 80 points, and Karel Vejmelka is projected for a division-leading 36 wins at a .901 save percentage. Utah's offseason cost them scoring depth: John-Jason Peterka is now projected in Boston, taking a 53-point projection with him.
5. St. Louis Blues: 94.2 pts, 8.4% to win the division
Robert Thomas projects for 72 points, with Jordan Binnington projected for 23 wins at a .896 save percentage. St. Louis added Mason McTavish from Anaheim, a 49-point projection that slots in right behind Thomas.
6. Nashville Predators: 93.3 pts, 7.7% to win the division
Filip Forsberg projects for 67 points, and Juuse Saros is projected for 28 wins at a .898 save percentage. Nashville is the other side of Dallas's departure above: Mavrik Bourque arrives projected for 35 points.
7. Winnipeg Jets: 89.1 pts, 5.1% to win the division
Kyle Connor projects for 82 points, and Connor Hellebuyck is projected for 25 wins at a .910 save percentage, tied for the best in the division. Winnipeg added depth defenseman Mario Ferraro from San Jose, projected for 20 points.
8. Chicago Blackhawks: 83.4 pts, 2.5% to win the division
Connor Bedard projects for 83 points, and Spencer Knight is projected for 24 wins at a .902 save percentage. Chicago's offseason headline is the return of Patrick Kane, now projected back in the city where he became a star, carrying a 54-point projection, though the model still has the Blackhawks last in the Central by a wide margin.
FAQ
Who wins the Central Division in 2026-27? Colorado, and it isn't close: a 27.3% chance to win the division on a league-best projected 107.1 points, the strongest division-winner projection of any team in this preview.
Will the Blackhawks make the playoffs in 2026-27? No, by this projection: Chicago's playoff odds sit at 25.9%, the lowest in the Central, on a projected 83.4 points, even with Connor Bedard's 83-point projection leading the roster.
Will the Predators make the playoffs in 2026-27? It's close to a coin flip and leaning no: Nashville projects for a 47.6% playoff chance on 93.3 points, sixth in the division.
How many points do the Stars project for in 2026-27? 103.2 points, with a 70.4% playoff chance and a 19.7% chance to win the division, second in the Central behind Colorado on the strength of Jason Robertson's 86-point projection and Jake Oettinger's projected 30 wins.
How does the model project the Central Division? It projects every team's points, playoff odds and division-win odds from a full-season simulation, then names each team's top projected scorer, its projected starting goalie and one roster change (a player who arrived or departed) drawn straight from the current roster file. Nothing here is a live in-season read; check back once games are played and the projections start updating.
These are preseason projections: last season's results regressed toward the mean, frozen before a single 2026-27 game has been played. See the 2026-27 season hub for every division and the full Central Division page for the live version of this table. Once games are played, check the live NHL standings or the results-based power rankings to see how the Central is actually shaking out.