Who Wins the Metropolitan Division in 2026-27?
Carolina projects for a division-best 105.1 points and a 25.6% chance to win the Metropolitan, the clearest favorite of any of the four divisions. Full projected standings for all eight teams.
The model projects the Carolina Hurricanes to finish with a division-best 105.1 points and gives them a 25.6% chance to win the Metropolitan, a clearer favorite than any other division leader in this preview.
These are preseason projections, built before puck drop. They regress last season's results toward the mean and will move once real games are played. Here is the full projected order.
| Rank | Team | Proj. Points | Playoff % | Division Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carolina Hurricanes | 105.1 | 69.3% | 25.6% |
| 2 | Philadelphia Flyers | 98.2 | 53.4% | 13.7% |
| 3 | Washington Capitals | 97.5 | 51.2% | 13.1% |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 97.2 | 50.9% | 12.6% |
| 5 | Columbus Blue Jackets | 95.5 | 47.6% | 10.6% |
| 6 | New York Islanders | 93.8 | 42.2% | 8.9% |
| 7 | New Jersey Devils | 93.6 | 42.3% | 8.7% |
| 8 | New York Rangers | 91.4 | 37.5% | 6.9% |
Top to bottom, the Metropolitan covers a 13.7-point spread, from Carolina's 105.1 down to the Rangers' 91.4. That's the tightest range of the four divisions in this preview, and it shows up in the playoff odds too: six teams land within nine points of a coin flip for a playoff spot.
Team by team, in projected order
1. Carolina Hurricanes: 105.1 pts, 25.6% to win the division
Sebastian Aho leads the projection at 76 points, and Pyotr Kochetkov is projected for 21 wins at a division-best .902 save percentage. Carolina's roster is otherwise largely the same group that won this division last year; the only projected skater move was depth defenseman Pierre-Olivier Joseph arriving from Vancouver.
2. Philadelphia Flyers: 98.2 pts, 13.7% to win the division
Travis Konecny projects for 64 points, with Dan Vladar projected for 26 wins at a .901 save percentage. Philadelphia added depth forward Noel Acciari from Pittsburgh, projected for 12 points.
3. Washington Capitals: 97.5 pts, 13.1% to win the division
Alex Ovechkin still projects for a league-leading 34 goals on the way to 63 points, and Logan Thompson is projected for 30 wins at a .910 save percentage, one of the best goaltending lines in the division. Washington's headline addition is Alex Tuch, arriving from Buffalo with a 57-point projection that would slot in right behind Ovechkin.
4. Pittsburgh Penguins: 97.2 pts, 12.6% to win the division
Sidney Crosby projects for 76 points, matching Aho for the second-best center total in the division, with Arturs Silovs projected for 27 wins at a .890 save percentage. Pittsburgh's notable departure is Anthony Mantha, now projected in New Jersey at 40 points.
5. Columbus Blue Jackets: 95.5 pts, 10.6% to win the division
Zach Werenski leads Columbus at 67 points from the blue line, with Elvis Merzlikins projected for 20 wins at a .892 save percentage, the softest projected goaltending line in the division. Columbus added Valeri Nichushkin from Colorado, projected for 35 points.
6. New York Islanders: 93.8 pts, 8.9% to win the division
Mathew Barzal projects for 59 points, and Ilya Sorokin is projected for 29 wins at a .908 save percentage, one of the stronger goaltending lines in the Metropolitan. The Islanders added Matias Maccelli from Toronto, a 36-point projection.
7. New Jersey Devils: 93.6 pts, 8.7% to win the division
Jack Hughes projects for 84 points, the Metropolitan's second-highest individual total, with Jake Allen projected for 25 wins at a .903 save percentage. New Jersey's addition is the same Anthony Mantha departing Pittsburgh above, projected for 40 points in his new home.
8. New York Rangers: 91.4 pts, 6.9% to win the division
The Rangers' top projected scorer is defenseman Adam Fox at 61 points, with Igor Shesterkin projected for 27 wins at a .910 save percentage, tied for the best in the division. New York added Pavel Dorofeyev from Vegas, a 54-point projection, but the model still has the Rangers last in the Metropolitan.
FAQ
Who wins the Metropolitan Division in 2026-27? Carolina, by a clear margin: a 25.6% chance to win the division on a projected 105.1 points, the largest division-winner edge of any of the four divisions in this preview.
Will the Rangers make the playoffs in 2026-27? The model has it as a longshot: New York projects for a 37.5% playoff chance on 91.4 points, the lowest odds in the Metropolitan despite Igor Shesterkin's .910 projected save percentage.
Will the Capitals make the playoffs in 2026-27? Yes, marginally favored: Washington projects for a 51.2% playoff chance on 97.5 points, third in the division.
How many points do the Penguins project for in 2026-27? 97.2 points, with a 50.9% playoff chance, fourth in the Metropolitan on the strength of Sidney Crosby's 76-point projection.
These are preseason projections: last season's results regressed toward the mean, frozen before a single 2026-27 game has been played. See the 2026-27 season hub for every division and the full Metropolitan Division page for the live version of this table. Once games are played, check the live NHL standings or the results-based power rankings to see how the Metropolitan is actually shaking out.