PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
2026-27 forecast · Tue, Sep 29, 10:00 PM ET
Tristan Jarry · 0.882 SV%
The preseason ratings make Edmonton Oilers 66.9% to win at home — a clear lean, worth 16.9 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project EDM for 97 points and VAN for 80.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
EDM controlled play at 5v5 last season, 51.0% of the expected goals to 43.2%; EDM's power play ran at 30.5% against a VAN kill at 71.5%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Tristan Jarry (EDM) saved -23.1 goals above expected to Kevin Lankinen's -44.4, on save percentages of 0.882 and 0.875.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Edmonton Oilers over Vancouver Canucks is where it starts, not where it ends.
Best posted price per side across 10 books, taken Sep 17. The percentages beside them are what those prices imply with the book’s margin removed.
| Side | Best price | Book | Market (no vig) | Forecast | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | +245 | BetRivers | 29.8% | 33.1% | +3.3 pts |
| EDM | -256 | BetOnline.ag | 70.2% | 66.9% | -3.3 pts |
Total 6.5 · over -108 at FanDuel · under +100 at DraftKings. No lean either way: the preseason forecast has no goal model, so the model’s total publishes with the slate.
This is a rating forecast against a posted price, not a bet. No stake is sized and nothing here enters the graded ledger. The full model read publishes inside seven days of puck drop and replaces these numbers.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
VAN
Kevin Lankinen
47 games, 2025-26
EDM
Tristan Jarry
33 games, 2025-26
| VAN | Metric | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 43.2% | xGF% (5v5) | 51.0% |
| 46.5% | Shot share | 52.3% |
| 2.6 | Goals for / game | 3.4 |
| 3.8 | Goals against / game | 3.3 |
| 21.8% | Power play | 30.5% |
| 71.5% | Penalty kill | 75.9% |
| 49.3% | Faceoffs | 52.5% |
Vancouver Canucks
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 23 | 42 | 65 | |
| R | 25 | 29 | 53 | |
| C | 18 | 28 | 46 | |
| D | 7 | 36 | 43 |
Edmonton Oilers
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 40 | 87 | 127 |
Season opener — no previous game, no rest edge either way.
Season opener — no previous game, no rest edge either way.
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-16 | VAN @ EDM | EDM | VAN 1–6 EDM | Correct |
| 2026-01-17 | EDM @ VAN | EDM | EDM 6–0 VAN | Correct |
| 2025-10-26 | EDM @ VAN | EDM | EDM 3–4 VAN | Missed |
| 2025-10-11 | VAN @ EDM | EDM | VAN 1–3 EDM | Correct |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Vancouver Canucks | 80 | 21.8% |
| Edmonton Oilers | 97 | 60.5% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| C | 37 | 58 | 95 |
| D | 17 | 59 | 76 |
| C | 18 | 34 | 53 |