Who is favoured, New York Islanders or New York Rangers?

New York Rangers, at 53.3% in PuckCast's preseason forecast. That is a rating-based forecast; the full model read, with goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of puck drop.

What is a preseason forecast?

A win probability from each team's regressed preseason rating and home ice, the same ratings behind the 2026-27 projected standings. Those ratings are calibrated at the season level, for standings and playoff odds; this single-game percentage is a plain rating formula and has not been graded on its own yet. It is deliberately unsure about any single game, and the confidence grade says how far it leans.

When does the real prediction publish?

Inside the seven-day window before the game. The model re-scores it on every refresh until puck drop, with the confirmed starting goalies, and this page shows that read instead of the forecast.

New York Islanders at New York Rangers, Tue, Oct 6: prediction and odds forecast

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2026-27 forecast · Tue, Oct 6, 8:00 PM ET

New York IslandersNYI

94 proj. pts · 42.2% playoffs

Ilya Sorokin · 0.906 SV%

Cvs8:00 PM ET

New York RangersNYR

A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works

The read

Preseason ratings · last season’s record

at 5v5 last season the two were level on expected goals (48.0% to 47.7%); NYR's power play ran at 24.6% against a NYI kill at 80.8%.

In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Igor Shesterkin (NYR) saved 2.2 goals above expected to Ilya Sorokin's -6.3, on save percentages of 0.912 and 0.906.

None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. New York Rangers over New York Islanders is where it starts, not where it ends.

In goal

goalie board

No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.

NYI

Ilya Sorokin

SV%: 0.906
GSAx: -6.3
GAA: 2.68
Record: 29-24-2

55 games, 2025-26

NYR

Igor Shesterkin

SV%: 0.912
GSAx: +2.2
GAA: 2.50
Record: 25-19-6

51 games, 2025-26

NYI	Metric	NYR
47.7%	xGF% (5v5)	48.0%
50.4%	Shot share	46.6%
2.8	Goals for / game	2.9
2.9	Goals against / game	3.0
16.5%	Power play	24.6%
80.8%	Penalty kill	79.9%
52.6%	Faceoffs	54.5%

Who drives it

2026-27 projected points

New York Islanders

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Mathew Barzal	C	16	43	59
Matthew Schaefer	D	21	34	55
Bo Horvat	C	22	24	46
Simon Holmstrom	R	17	20	36

New York Rangers

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Adam Fox	D	11	51	61

Last season, head to head

ledger

Date	Game	Pick	Score	Result
2026-01-29	NYI @ NYR	NYI	NYI 2–1 NYR	Correct
2026-01-28	NYR @ NYI	NYI	NYR 2–5 NYI	Correct
2025-12-27	NYR @ NYI	NYI	NYR 0–2 NYI	Correct
2025-11-08	NYI @ NYR	NYR	NYI 5–0 NYR	Missed

Season outlook

projected standings

Team	Proj. points	Playoff odds
New York Islanders	94	42.2%
New York Rangers	91	37.5%